As May 28th was Memorial day long weekend, USCIS could not update H1B cap numbers on Monday. They updated it yesterday on May 30th, 2012…The numbers include all the H1B petitions that USCIS received until Friday, May 25th, 2012. Here is the summary of the count updates:
- 6,400 new H1B petitions were filed under Regular quota
- 1,500 new H1B petitions were filed under Masters degree quota
May 30th , 2012 : H1B Visa 2013 cap count updates by USCIS
|H1B Petition Filings||Total Cap||Current Cap count|
|Advanced degree Quota
|Remaining H1B Cap||19,100|
Big spike in H1B filings…Up Trend ! Prediction moved to June 22nd.
Well, if you live in US, hope you all had a lovely Memorial day long weekend… ! We got some real good movement in the H1B visa filings this week…Lets do the numbers game : If we compare with last week, May 22nd H1B 2012 Cap count, the regular quota cap numbers are up by 1,100 from 5,300 last week to 6,400 this week…Similarly Masters quota cap count numbers are up by 300 from 1,200 last week to 1,500 this week. Overall, the H1B cap count numbers are up by 1,400 from 6,500 last week to 7,900. On a percentage basis, the volume is up by 20%, even the week prior to that we had about 22% increase in volume of filings. We are left with 16,600 H1B slots under regular quota and 2,500 H1B slots under master’s degree quota.
Lets look at the predictions of H1B 2013 cap completion dates…If we just do linear regression, mathematically without considering other parameters, the H1B cap completion date for Master’s degree quota is June 8th and for regular quota it would be July 1st, 2012. But, in reality, things are different. We have seen a consistent 20% rise in H1B regular quota filings in the past 3 weeks. If the same 20% up trend in volume continues, we would have the H1B regular cap complete by June 10th or so..Also, over the years I have observed that the volume of H1B filings increase in the last couple of weeks as Employers rush and file petitions at the last minute looking at the H1B slots left…it is basic human tendency to rush things looking at the finish line…Moreover, the masters degree students also file their petitions under regular quota after the Masters quota exhaust…Considering all these, Here are my predictions:
- H1B filings volume can decrease next week, due to Memorial day long weekend effect
- Masters degree H1B quota masters can most likely be complete by June 8th ( maybe earlier )
- H1B Regular Quota can be exhausted by June 22nd ( conservative prediction). This can move up by a week, based on human tendency to rush and file petitions.
From US economy perspective, we do not have lot of great news to report this week. The Consumer confidence index (released every month) by Conference Board fell in May to 64.9 from 68.7 in April.. it it is the lowest since January 2012. All it tells us is that consumers are less positive about US economy….they expect less hiring and less short term growth… As we are at the end of the month, we do not have lot of numbers at hand to report and assess the US job market. We will look at the monthly jobless claim numbers, unemployment rate and GDP growth in our next week US economy review. Irrespective of the US economy situation, as we are reaching the end of H1B cap season for FY 2013, we will expect more H1B filings in the next couple of weeks. If you are seeking H1B visa for this year, hurry up !!!
What is your H1B prediction date ?
Any thoughts on economy to share ?
H1B Cap Count 2013 – Regular Quota Graph
Masters Degree H1B cap count 2013 Graph