US economy drives H1B visa jobs and MS students

May 8th H1B 2013 Cap count Update – 4,700 visa petitions. Less filings, Analysis

by Kumar · 37 comments

As usual, USCIS updated its weekly summary of H1B cap count numbers for fiscal year 2013 earlier today. The numbers include all the H1B petitions received until Friday, May 4th, 2012. Below is the summary of the update:

  • 3,300 new H1B petitions were filed under Regular quota
  • 1,400 new H1B petitions were filed under Masters degree quota

H1B Visa 2013 cap count updates by USCIS on May 8th, 2012:

H1B Petition Filings Total Cap Current Cap count
Regular Quota 65,000 32,500
Advanced degree Quota (Masters degree) 20,000 13,700
Total 85,000 46,200
Remaining H1B Cap 38,800

Drop in H1B regular quota filings, H1B Prediction – July 10th ?

Well folks, yet another week of H1B 2013 season. Are you a regular reader of my weekly analysis and prediction ? Does my weekly analysis seem monotonous to you guys ? If so, give me some ideas…

Anyways, coming back to H1B Data analysis… As we look at the cap count numbers of this week, we have slight drop in the H1B filings, when compared to last week, April 30th, 2012 H1B 2013 update. Regular quota H1B filings dropped by about 25% from 4,200 last week to 3,300 this week…unlike, Masters degree quota filings stayed constant at 1,400.  Overall, the total number of filings dropped slightly this week. To give you all a perspective,  last year around the same time May 2011 H1B count , we had about 1,700 petitions filed. You can look at the H1B FY 2012 filings trend in below graph as well and compare it with FY 2013 trend.  You can also follow the weekly cap count update at H1B Visa 2013 Tracker

From H1B 2013 predictions perspective, the data suggests that regular quota can be exhausted by July 10th, 2012 and Masters quota can be exhausted by June 18th, 2012. The predicted dates do not deviate much from last week’s predictions. We still have about 38,800 slots available to file H1B petition for fiscal year 2013, hurry up…

As we look at the unemployment and jobs scenario in America, the jobless claims decreased last week, after a four week rise in the past 4 weeks. It is a good sign, but economists like to look at the 4 week average to adjust seasonal effects like easter holiday and to consider other part time contract jobs effects. The unemployment rate still holds at 8.2% and no big movement in that number. Also, it is reported that there here has been less hiring in April and it is heating up the political race for president between President Obama and Mitt Romney. From  Advanced skilled labor requirement perspective, which is H1B demand, there should not be much changes and we can expect to have a healthy H1B Sponsorship and hiring for rest of the 2013 season…

What are your thoughts ? How is your experience looking for H1B sponsor ?

H1B Cap Count 2013 – Regular Quota  Graph

 H1B visa 2013  cap count update  May 8th - Regular Quota

Masters Degree H1B cap count 2013 Graph

 

 H1B visa 2013 cap count update Masters degree quota - May 8th-2012

{ 37 comments… read them below or add one }

baiju abraham May 25, 2012 at 1:53 pm

Hi,

I got mail from my attorney that my petition is filled on May23rd and I am yet to receive my receipt number.Will this count under this cap? or only after getting a number it counts under the cap?
2)mine is under regular processing,so by when I can expect the visa to be in hand

Thanks a lot !

Regards,
Baiju

Reply

Saurabh May 26, 2012 at 2:55 am

baiju abraham,
1. The employer/attorney will receive the petition within 60 days. It will be counted in cap as long as it reaches USCIS before quota is reached. When they issue the receipt number it will be further proof of making through the cap.
2. Petition can take 2-6 months to process.

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Babu Bhatt August 3, 2012 at 3:41 am

1. The employer/attorney will receive the petition within 60 days
2. Petition can take 2-6 months to process.

What does it mean?
What’s the timeline for the petition processing? 60 days or 2-6 months?

Reply

Saurabh August 30, 2012 at 1:43 pm

Babu Bhatt,
1. The employer/attorney will receive the **receipt number** within 60 days
2. Petition can take 2-6 months to process.

Reply

Roly May 14, 2012 at 3:26 am

Hi, and thanks for such a valuable resource. A question about the graph and figures – the purple line for H1B 2013 represents what? Visas applied for or visas approved?
So if my application is likely to be in the system after June 10th and not approved, is it likely I will miss out on a H1B?
Thanks again.

Reply

Saurabh May 14, 2012 at 10:43 am

Roly,
It is for the petitions that have been filed. Once the petition has been filed and received by USCIS, it is considered to have made through the cap unless USCIS denies the petition later.

Reply

Roly May 14, 2012 at 12:12 pm

Perfect, thank you very much!

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Amit Gupta May 15, 2012 at 4:46 am

Hi Saurabh,

If that petition gets rejected either in review phase or in stamping interview then what happenes?

is there any waiting list maintance where other petitions gets chance on the basis clearance of waiting?

please reply that will help to everyone just to understand the process of US embassy.

Regards,
amit gupta

Reply

Saurabh May 15, 2012 at 6:00 pm

Amit Gupta,
I think based on historical rejection rate, they accept few more petitions to make up for those denied. BTW, stamping rejection doesn’t reduce the quota count but petition denial does.

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Somesh May 11, 2012 at 3:00 pm

btw: I am in India and i have travelled a couple of times to US on business.

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Somesh May 11, 2012 at 2:57 pm

Hi Saurabh,
I am in a similar situation like Suresh but the difference in my case is both are H1. I have 2 receipt numbers from 2 employers, Both are BIG and direct employers. I am not sure which employer has done thro PP but i am expecting at least my current employer has done in PP.
1#. Does the “Last Action Rule” apply for me?
2#. Will there be an issue with USCIS approving 1 or both the petitions as the employers have filled a different “Job Title” in i129 & 9035E for the same technology that i work for.
3#. Lastly, i prefer to join with the new employer considering the location and other benefits. If i get the documents and approval from my current employer, i will wait for more time for the other petition’s case status, if approved, i would go for stamping with this one, BUT will consular raise questions about my other petition with my current employer or will he know that i have another approved petition?if yes, will that be an issue for him to approve the Visa?
4#. In any case, i will have a receipt number unused, will that be useful for me in future in some means, if yes, how and what documents should i keep with me regarding the unused petition?

I know its a bit too many questions but Thanks in advance.

Reply

Saurabh May 12, 2012 at 7:29 pm

Somesh,
1. So you are in India right now and 2 employers have filed H-1 for you. In this case, LAR doesn’t apply as you are outside of US
2. If you qualify for both the positions, it should not be an issue
3. No, they shouldn’t raise any questions about the other petition
4. It would be nice to keep at least a copy of the other approved petition. If the other petition doesn’t get approved, then it is ok no use

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Guest May 11, 2012 at 9:13 am

Hi Saurabh,

I got my H1-B in 2012 quota and I started working from March 2012. I am planning to visit India in June-July timeframe.

Considering all possibilities, if my visa stamping in India gets rejected, I am planning to enter US in H4 and try to apply for H1 again. Will this H-1 come under the 2013 quota? or it does not apply for me. Please note that I would have effectively worked in my previous H-1 only for 4-5 months.

Thanks for clarifying.

Reply

Saurabh May 12, 2012 at 6:39 pm

Guest,
If your H-1 petition is not revoked by USCIS, then you can use that petition to get another cap-exempt H-1 petition. So it will not be subject to 2013 quota. However, if your H-1 petition is revoked by USCIS after rejection, then you need a new petition subject to quota.

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Aastha May 11, 2012 at 8:29 am

Hi Saurabh,

My employer filed for my HIB as a Premium Processing case, I received the notice on April 30, 2012 that they received and accepted my application. Now today I checked my case status and it shows – Request for Evidence. I am not sure what does this mean. We contacted an attorney to do the filing so I’m wondering what evidence would be required. Is this something very rare during the H1B application or do other candidates also sometimes receive this notice? I’m just panicking right now since none of my friends have ever received this kind of notice. Its written on the website that they mailed on 8th May,2012 so it might take couple days to reach me. But I’m worried about my case.

I just need to know if there have been other cases who have received this kind of notice and then when they did submitted the required docs, what was the outcome? Does it anyway have any negative effect on their decision? Please suggest if you have any advice.

Thanks in advance!

Reply

Saurabh May 12, 2012 at 6:36 pm

Aastha,
RFE can be issued for various reasons and it may or may not be something serious depending upon what USCIS is asking for. Check w/ your employer/attorney on what they are asking for and then co-ordinate w/ them on how to submit them. The final decision will depend upon how satisfied USCIS is w/ the RFE response.

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Ren May 10, 2012 at 9:53 pm

Saurabh,

I need your advice. I’m a foreign therapist currently reviewing for licensure. I’ve been looking for potential H1-B visa sponsors but most of them are willing to sponsor me after i get my license (which will be around second week of July). There are more willing staffing agencies who want to sponsor me sooner and advice me to sign up with them now (although there are some disadvantages and “bondage” as a consequence) because current H1-B predictions show that i may not reach the quota if i wait any longer. My B2 expires this 3rd week of july. Based on your predictions and knowledge of H1-B trending, should I just sign up with the recruiters to guarantee that i can work by october this year rather than do it on my own?

Hoping you could help me out on this one. i’d really appreciate a sound advice right now…

Reply

Saurabh May 12, 2012 at 1:00 am

Ren,
Maybe you can ask them to file the petition now, and then wait for USCIS to complete the process. If they need the license, they would issue the RFE and hopefully by that ime you would have the license w/ you.

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Sebastian May 10, 2012 at 7:03 pm

Hey and thank you very much for putting together all this data, its very helpful and i am checkin out your site almost everyday :)

Still though i am a bit concerned as i am getting my degree in late September. The visas wont last that long this year. Do you think there is any way to put a hold on a visa for me by showing them that i am getting my degree in september and having a company here in the US wanting me to work over here?

All the best, Sebastian

Reply

Anubhav May 10, 2012 at 11:54 am

Hi Saurabh,

It seems your way of predicting the date when the H1B quota expires is incorrect. By taking the first data as 15000, you are drawing an incorrect slope of the trend line. So it cannot be extrapolated. You should start the trend line by taking the first data point as 0, which would predict the quota expiry date to be around 15 June. Let me know if it makes sense.

Anubhav

Reply

Saurabh May 11, 2012 at 9:39 pm

Anibhav,
The graphs are prepared by Kumar and not me. In any case, the 1st filing is always an outlier as 15K petitions are filed initially. However, after that the filings become more comparable and the numbers drop drastically from 15K to 3K. This number remains almost the same and so provides a better gradient.

Let’s take some real numbers, if quota is 65K and 15K petitions are filed in 1st week and maintain constant rate of 3K petitions per week, then total weeks = one week (1st week) + weeks it take to file 45K petitions @ 3K per week, which turns out to be 16 weeks. This takes slope from 2nd week onwards. Does that make sense?

Reply

Ashok May 9, 2012 at 2:54 pm

Hi Saurabh,

All these information are helpful, I am closely following these articles to see till when H1B cap will be available and it is very useful.

I have couple of queries,
1. I am traveling to India for personal reasons and coming back to US on July 9th, My company said that they will process H1 once i am back from India. Looking at the speed now, looks like cap may get finished during that time frame only. If my company starts H1 processing while i am in India (may be end of June), will that affect me while entering US during immigration?
2. If some other company is ready to sponsor H1B for me during June end before cap gets finished, will it affect me while entering US. Is there any other risks involved in it?

Please let me know thoughts. Thanks for all your help!

Thanks,
Ashok

Reply

Saurabh May 10, 2012 at 11:59 am

Ashok,
What’s your current visa status? Usually one can enter US on another applicable visa even if H-1 is under process. The only thing is that your H-1 COS will be abandoned once you leave US and it’s still pending. So your status would remain whatever it is now (and what you use to enter US) and you will have to either enter US on stamped H-1 visa or file COS to H-1 to start working on H-1.

Reply

Ashok May 10, 2012 at 4:03 pm

Hi Saurabh,

Thanks for the reply!

I am currently in L1 Visa. My company was planning to apply H1 for me, but i need to go out of country during June/July due to personal reasons so they decided to do L1 extension end of this year.

I requested them to start the process during June end before Quota ends while I am India, but i guess it is not going to happen. One consultancy is ready to sponsor H1 for me during June end while i am in India. But i am worried whether it will cause any problem while entering US as i will return using L1 visa provided by current employer and H1 might in processing for another employer at that time.

If Consultancy applies H1 for me, will that information will be seen by immigration officer while entering US. Do they ask do much too much questions on that? Please help!

Thanks,
Ashok

Reply

Saurabh May 11, 2012 at 10:39 pm

Ashok,
If you want to enter US on L-1 while H-1 is under process, then it should not be an issue. I don’t know what information PoE officer can see on their screen, but I don’t see why they would see it is an issue that you have a pending H-1 petition.

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Ashok May 14, 2012 at 2:13 pm

Thanks Saurabh! I will inform my company to apply for H1 while i am in India. Else, its good that i have another option of going through Consultancy before Quota finishes while i am in India. Thanks for all your help!

Thanks,
Ashok

Reply

Mohit May 9, 2012 at 12:35 pm

Hi Saurabh,
My company has filed an H1B petition for me and I am going for stamping in india as soon as it is accepted (I have recently moved back to India). However for training reasons they don’t want me to start my job until Dec. Would I need to explain this to the VO and is this likely to cause an issue particularly because i am not using my opt ?

Reply

Saurabh May 10, 2012 at 11:41 am

Mohit,
So you did your Masters and are now moving to India, and want to return around Dec to start working on H-1. You have couple of options:
- go for stamping later (say in Sep-Oct) and carry recent employment documents for that date
- go for stamping now assuming you will be returning to US in Oct. If you end up returning in Dec, it would still be ok.

BTW, earliest you can go for stamping is July (90 days prior to H-1 start date)

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David May 9, 2012 at 8:37 am

Hi,

Company A H1B effective date is Oct 1st 2012. How long do I have to stay with the Company A before transferring to company B? Is it 3 months or 3 paychecks? Any idea?

Reply

Saurabh May 9, 2012 at 6:44 pm

David,
H-1 transfer can be applied the very next day. There is no minimum time one needs to spent w/ one employer before moving to next one.

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Praveen May 8, 2012 at 7:21 pm

Hi Saurabh,

I am working on an L1B visa for a company A and i am looking for H1B sponsorship.
But all the consultancy guys who contact me mention that its difficult to get the L1 to H1 since they have to provide client letter for applying the H1B visa and no client would provide a letter for a project that i can only start working from Oct 2012.

Is it the case with every body who is currently on L1B and wants an H1 sponsorship or am i being totally fooled around.

Just wanted to know since most of the people in this site have been posting regarding applying for H1b visa even on L1.

Reply

Saurabh May 9, 2012 at 6:05 pm

Praveen,
See my response to your other post.

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suresh May 8, 2012 at 11:44 am

Dear Saurabh,
Your responses are intresting and very much learning.

Im currently on L1 and I94 got expired in April. my company filed for extension and its under process.
Mean while I applied for H1 from a different company and got the receipt.
Now both L1 and H1 are under process and have both the receipts with me.

What are the drawbacks/advantages if one get processed earlier than other.
I would like to work on H1, what should I do for the same.

Reply

Saurabh May 9, 2012 at 5:28 pm

Suresh,
There is something called “Last Action Rule”. This means when 2 parallel petitions are filed for different categories, then the eventual status is determined by the petition which gets approved later. So if L-1 gets approved followed by H-1, then your status would become H-1 from the COS approval date mentioned in the notice.

Does that clarify?

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Suresh May 9, 2012 at 9:52 pm

Saurabh
Thanks for the response. It clarifies a bit but what if l1 gets approved prior to h1. How do I get h1 status.

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Saurabh May 10, 2012 at 12:23 pm

Suresh,
That’s what I explained what happens if L-1 gets approved prior to H-1. In the opposite case (i.e. L-1 gets approved after H-1), you need to file COS from L-1 to H-1 or enter US on stamped H-1 visa to go to H-1 status.

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Rahul May 8, 2012 at 8:28 am

Great Work…..this blog is the best.!

I have a question which is related to Canadian process. I know Canada has something called cap for Skilled workers. Any idea where can I get more detailed information(apart from cic.ga.ca) on how to apply for skilled workers category(not for immigration).
Really appreciate any tips/pointers for this.

Thanks,

Rahul

Reply

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