Updated : Dec 9, 2014 (H1B 2016 FAQs )
H1B Visa 2015 season is over. Check below for H1B Visa 2016 Season.
Applying for H1B Visa 2016 ? Did you miss FY 2015 lottery ?
Check out -> H1B Visa 2016 – Start Info, Sponsos, Fees, News , FAQs
Flash News Update :
- May 5th : USCIS announced today that data entry of all FY15 H-1B cap petitions has been completed. USCIS will now begin returning all H-1B cap petitions that were not selected in the lottery. They have announced it on their twitter and facebook pages.
- April 18th : USCIS announced that they will begin H1B FY 2015 premium processing from April 28th, 2014. Previously they announced that they will begin, ‘no later than April 28th’. They just clarified that. You can read on USCIS website
- April 11th : USCIS announced that it received about 172,500 petitions for the H1B Visa 2015 Quota. Read USCIS : 172,500 Received – H1B Lottery Summary
- April 7th : USCIS H1B Visa 2015 Cap Reached on April 7th.
H1B Visa 2015 – Latest News Updates , Articles
- Applying for H1B 2015 ? Read : Step by Step Plan to Apply for H1B 2015
- How to find H1B Visa 2015 Sponsors ? Various Options
- H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Prediction – USCIS Data, Trend, Analysis
- USCIS Official News Release : H1B FY 2015 Petitions Accepted from April 1st. Summary
Looking for H1B Cap Daily Updates ? Check H1B Visa 2015 Cap count Updates Page
Frequently Asked Questions about H1B Visa FY 2015
When will H1B Visa 2015 Season Begin ?
USCIS accepted H1B Visa 2015 applications from April 1st, 2014. They had the window open for 5 working days. USCIS stopped accepting H1B Petitions for FY 2015 from Monday April 7th as more applications were received than the required cap of 85,000 petitions.
What would be the Cap count for H1B Visa 2015 quota ?
No changes to the H1B Cap for FY15, the immigration reform discussions did not go through, the cap limit remained same as last year.
- Regular H1B Quota : 65,000
- Masters H1B Quota : 20,000
- It is to be noted that 6,800 visas every year are set aside for Singapore and Chile Free trade agreement filings, which is called as H1B1 program.
Would there be lottery for H1B Visa 2015 ?
We had H1B visa Lottery for fiscal year 2014. USCIS received about 172,500 petitions for FY 2015 . Our predictions were right, you can read the article H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Prediction analysis
How soon should I start planning for H1B Visa 2015 ?
[ Updated : H1B Sesaon is over for FY 15, plan for next year FY 2016 ] Well, there is nothing like too early… Getting a good H1B Sponsor can be a challenge these days. You need to find a job that fits your profile and find a sponsor that has a job for you. Some employers want to test out the capabilities of the candidate before they plan to sponsor H1B Visa. Typically, they would like students with masters from US work for them on internship or co-op. If they like the candidate then they will sponsor H1B visa. If you are planning to land in US from overseas countries like India, it could be even challenging to find a good sponsor. Maybe you would need to work with global IT services companies and make your way up. It can involve lot of internal process to get the process initiated… You are never early…. Read Step by Step Plan to Apply for H1B 2015
How do I find Sponsors for H1B visa 2015 ?
This is probably the most asked question. It can be a challenge to find a good sponsor. We have written quite a few articles on this topic. The fundamental concept of finding a good employer does not change. You can use our H1B Visa Sponsors Database and search for sponsors in a city or zip code. Check out the above links under 2015 latest news and updates for the current year’s article to find sponsors. You can also, read our last year’s article : How to find H1B Visa sponsors, avoid fraud
What would be the H1B Filing fee for Fiscal year 2015 ?
There has not been any changes in the filing fee for the past couple of years. It did not change for fiscal year 2014. The H1B Visa 2015 filing fee can range anywhere from $1,575 to $4,325 based on the size of the company (number of employees ). Also, the attorney fee can range from $700 to $3000. If you go for premium processing again that is $1225. You can check out the detail break up of fee at : H1B Visa Filing Fee Details – Who Pays for What ?
H1B Visa Immigration Reform – CIR – Proposed Changes ? The comprehensive immigration reform has not passed yet. But, lets say, if it gets passed, the below changes may happen.
- Annual H1B Cap will be increased from 65,000 per year to 110,000. If exteme demand, it can go up to a maximum of 180,000.
- The H1B quota for STEM degree holders from American Schools will increase from 20,000 to 25,000
- H1B Visa fees can up to USD $10,000.
- More stringent rules on H1B visa adjudication.
- Mandatory LCA posting on DOL website for at least 30 days, before it is certified.
You can read Summary of CIR – Immigration reform – H1B Visa and Green Card . We will keep you posted with updates on CIR and H1B visa changes for this year, if any. Did I miss anything ? Do you have any other questions ?
Note : Some of the below comments about H1B Sponsors are negative. Please be aware that these are comments added by individuals of companies, competitors and many others that may hate such companies. We do NOT vouch for any of the comments made as they are not made by us.
Under federal law (Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act), our Blog RedBus2US.com is NOT legally liable or responsible for information posted by public, general users or third parties that contains remarks that are defamatory for a company or individual.
Guys,
All AD/RP or AD/PP do not worry, everyone going to get selected in lottery.
100% pakka.
Hi All,
Can we Sign-up for Case Updates in USCIS website to know our case status. I dont have my case no but want to check based upon my name if i have been selected in lottery or not. My case filled Regular quota/RP so it might take hell lot of time to know.. so just wanted to know if is there any way if we can come to know… i know if it had there you guys might have know this however just wanted to check….
Thanks
Nope without receipt number you cant.
H1b cap exempt employers also apply same time right? So some receipts can be for them too ?
Correct 🙂
Simi,
Correct and lot of the calculation going around is ignoring this fact.
Just curious about something. I’m not familiar with the process but suppose I don’t get selected in the lottery. What happens to my job offer then? Is it nullified or is it still valid and I have to go through this process again next year?
Thanks.
Either filled by some one else who has a valid visa/filled by some other from same country.
If you are lucky enough then job will be vacant & try your luck next year also!!!
What the **** Vermont center doing i don’t know no updates in the uscis sites.. california rocks…
Shami,
It depends upon your employer. They can wait until next year, or hire another candidate.
Last year, the USCIS stopped taking new H1B FY2014 petitions on Apr 5, 2013 (Friday) and conducted lottery on Apr 7 (Sunday. On Apr 8, 2013 (Monday), the USCIS informed us they received about 124,000 petitions and the random selection process was completed.
This year, the USCIS received about 172,500 H1B FY2015 petitions and conducted the random selection process on Apr 10, 2014. Some people received emails with a receipt number. Please do not panic, if you did not get any notification. We still have time to know about our result. Those who paid for Premium Processing (PP) should expect notification between Apr 10 and May 12, since the USCIS announced that they will start PP no later than Apr 28 (instead of Apr 15).
I got this information from other website. NOTE: This applies to last year cases (FY 2014 ).
“The earliest notifications in FY14 were premium-processing eMail receipts, which arrived on April 9, 2013. Even though the USCIS officially suspended premium processing timeframe guarantees for cap cases between April 1st and April 15th, some of the premium-processing cases, nonetheless, were acted upon promptly. The Murthy Law Firm even saw some cases approved by April 15,2013, for the last fiscal year.
By April 23, 2013, the Murthy Law Firm had received eMail receipts for the remaining cases filed under premium processing, as well as additional approval notices. Also by that time, hard copy receipt notices for H1B cases filed under standard, non-premium processing had begun to come in gradually. These receipts continued to arrive throughout April and into May.
In FY14, the USCIS began returning cases that had not been selected in the lottery on May 6, 2013. The packets containing these filings started to arrive via regular mail a few days later.”
Thanks good to know! 🙂
Thank you
That 28th date about which few of u referring to is 28th may and that was the date for PP applicants so they can apply before 1 april before regular applicants. Lossing hope doesn’t mean speculating wrong information. So quit guessing and assuming things, if you got selected you will get the receipt else not simple as that. For those of u who are lucky, congratulation and those of u who aren’t wait till you get ur package back plus start focusing on backup plans. If you dont have a backup plan like me then start packing and enjoy the time left. Good luck to u all 🙂
I am not seeing any nu, bers ther… can u send me link on s_sonu007 at yahoo dot co dot in along with screenshot plz.
WAC1413753194
Is that pp or regular processing??
From where you guys are checking this numbers? Rwcipt no.? How u come to know 1hich is latest? Is any site
USCIS
Saurabh Kulkarni.
They go to USCIS site and check for case status. Then enter a random number in the format WAC141375XXXX (137 being the 137th business day of FY-14) and continue to enter it until they reach the message case number not found. That gives them an indication of the last number generated until that time.
Note that lot of these receipts will be irrelevant to this discussion as they will not be for cap-subject H-1 petition. So one needs to look at each and every receipt number to determine whether that is relevant or not. Lot of folks are ignoring to do that and posting incorrect numbers like 5000 receipts per day etc. I have replied multiple times to their posts about this, but they seem to ignore it.
Guys,
Quick question- my lawyer forgot to include my single pay stub (I just had one as I recently joined) with the employer? Do you think this is a problem? Any way to fix this?? (Fortune 15 employer)
Don’t worry. I don’t think that it will be major issue. If they really need it, they may put ask for it under RFE.
Good luck !
All AD/PP or Non-AD PP guys
I think we ll still have time, tomorrow will be 5 days (1 week since the lottery), and premium processing doesn’t really start until 28th, so I believe we have a chance till middle of next week. Last year they gave receipt to 110K applicants (my attorney’s info). Lets keep our spirits up. ( its only been 4 days)
And they won’t only select 20K AD guys, since AD pools into Non-AD, there could easily be more AD guys in the lottery, the process is so manual. Every count we see here, I don’t think 100% is new H1B applications, 10%-15% are other applications as well.
Although Speaking from the gut, it would be great if AD PP (me) gets the receipt in the next 2 days.
God bless us
Good luck! I am waiting too 🙂
Patience is a luxury not all of us have buddy !
It’s our choice. I love suspense and I am joining every bit of it. By the way, mine is Non-AD, Non-PP, Non-Exempt i.e. Regular.
Yup!
And if you visit last years forums you will see that some people got PP receipts around 24th April.
They we’re wait listed !
@Manu: Thanks! Its very encouraging of you. We need to hang in there. May luck be on our side.
Doesn’t it mean that technically we can even hear until mid day. Since they said PP STARTS on April 28th?
They said “no longer” than 28th ! DETAILS !
Thanks for being so encouraging. If I don’t hear something by Friday I will be really worried though. I was really hoping for something already today. Do you know if PP gets rejection packages faster than regular too by the way?
We (AD/PP) should have hope until Apr 25 or Apr 30.
From where you got this Recipt numbers? WAC1413751940
My Employer has applied for me. Not sure if they did it.
yes this number exists.so congrats
Last one from CSC is WAC1413753171
Last one from CSC is WAC1413754368…they are processing 4368 applications a day..and i see many PP….so hang on guys there are many more PP’s to come..i am in RQ/RP though so will have a long wait
full force,
Again, you make the incorrect assumption that all 4368 receipts for cap-subject H-1 petition. That would be true if USCIS did nothing but handle only cap-subject H-1 petitions.
Any one received receipt for AD – Non Premium Processing from Vermont (EAC)
Please reply … wait time is killing me
You can expect receipt only after 25 for all non-pp
Thanks man … its helps me to keep cool … I hate my employer for not applying for PP … Yikes
Not yet. I have been also waiting. It’s going to take little more time to send them mail to our attorney…
lets hope the wait time gets over soon … all the best
It may have closed on this
Last one was WAC1413753194
That means they are generating close to 6000 receipts per day?
Aviator,
Only if you consider that all 3194 receipts were for cap-subject H-1 petitions. This is obviously not the case.
Hi everyone,
Just relax.
I think its time to get back to normal life.
The worst case scenario is you wont make it.
Worrying too much will not change anything.
So just pray and hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
I agree with you..so true…decsion is made..nothing is going to change if we worry or not worry
Amen to that!
Obviously praying after the lottery has been done does not make any sense ! Praying should have been done before the lottery … It’s rational101 !
Alright 🙂 Don’t pray, just wait.
Praying will not do you any harm though 🙂
Deal
You’re assuming that time travel is not possible 🙂
You’re also assuming that prayers do work 😛
I do agree with you !
CSC has processed more than 3000 case today. WAC1413753031 is the latest.
WAC1413752782 is latest
WAC1413754368 is the latest at the moment
current
.Even I had heard of similar experience.
Has anyone tested the SEVIS number changing theory? Is there a way to check the SEVIS number online by oneself?
This theory does not work. My colleague received the receipt and after that he called his univ for sevis change. They said no change yet
thanks
Thanks
Advanced Degree, Regular Processing – Fragomen.
Still waiting. Have any regular processing people received any information??
Good luck, everyone.
me too waiting..
Me too..Fragomen-AD-PP-VT
I am AD -Regular process too and still waiting. Has Anybody with regular processing received receipt? Why my attorney did not do PP?… i wonder..
WAC1413752315 Seems to be last case processed by CSC. Good Night guys see you tomorrow.
Guys, need your vote for the WhiteHouse H1B Petition “Allow H1B applicants who were not selected in the FY2015 lottery temporary work authorization .” : http://wh.gov/lvhSV
current
Got Picked up in the Lottery , Atty forwarded the receipt half hour back .
EAC1413554502
Date Received: 04/10/2014
Non-AD / PP/ Vermont .
Thanks to almighty god . Good luck to all of you .
Congrats Ragav!
Thank you , Good luck to you ..
congrats
Thank you , Good luck to you ..
Any egan people still waiting.
AD or Regular
I am. Regular…
EAC news??
last receipt i saw WAC1413752136
last number of the day WAC1413751940
whosoever it is a lucky one!! congrats to him…
Are you sure? It’s only 2:30 PM in California.
Just saw WAC1413752136….
It went on till almost 5 PM CA time yesterday. So there is still plenty of time left for the day..probably a 1000 more receipts..
Another 45 minutes.. Probably done for the day I belv.
when will be last day where i can stop waiting for my result and concentrate on work..this is more pressure than my job!!!
Hi All,
Thank you to all the poster’s and readers. Valuable information in all the comments.
I have a two part question, When do you think USCIS will start mailing out receipts for non PP petitions and how does an employer identify which receipt is for which employee. To my knowledge neither the receipt notice nor the USCIS website have any information regarding the petitioner such as name etc
Thanks in advance for your replies
Cheers
Nick
The receipt notice has the beneficiary’s name on it. That’s how they separate it.
Hi Nick,
I received my receipt today through my employer and it has name and date of birth. Hope this answers you.
Regards/ Sanjeed
AD/PP still waiting.
Should i give up or still keep those fingers crossed.
Till april 28 you might get
Don’t worry bro. God is not for a few people. He is for every body. Don’t worry too much. Keep a positive approach. Best of luck…….
I am still waiting too, but I guess no use waiting anymore.
Guys in similar situation, wats plan B??
CPT universities?? Do you guys know of any
How is sullivan uni..but will we be able to work till Oct 2015
1. Goldey – Beacom College, Delaware
2. ITU Californis
3. Globe University – Minneapolis
4. Sullivan (Lexington campus). check your opt expiration and college calendar accordingly.
Same here. AD/PP. I don’t think it’s over. People are still getting receipts as of today.
My Plan B: Get internal transfer or move and work in the UK/EU for a few years.
I’m ad pp Vermont and got mine this afternoon. So they are definitely still sending out ad pp receipt numbers. Don’t lose hope. Good luck!
Guys,
Any idea lottery might get pick based on I-94 status?
I heard from few, lottery probability is set based on US I-94 status. Those who are all already in US they will be given first priority for the lottery pick. Is it true?
Its infact the other way round. I have heard that people who are already in US wont be selected first. People outside US should be given chance to get some exposure. Not sure if it is true though. Dont have wild ideas bro, sit tight
I dont think any of this is true
CA is really fast.. This is the last receipt generated for now.. WAC1413751940
Yes; saw the # WAC1413751940 just now. Any idea about VT latest #?
AD\PP
Not selected last year and waiting this year..
Don’t loose hope. USCIS will keep few application in waiting list apart from 85k. Please refer the below reply from Saurabh.
Mani April 8, 2014 at 8:45 pm
Thanks Saurabh for the information.
Is there any process like keeping few applications in waiting list apart from 85k applications?
Saurabh April 8, 2014 at 10:52 pm
Mani,
Yes, every year they select few extra petitions to accomodate for the ones that will get withdrawn and denied. They deduce the number based on historical data and usually don’t publish the counts.
Any update for RP/PP
Did any one NON AD/ Regular cap got receipt.. If not any idea when uscis will start sending?
Got my receipt today morning.. EACXXX.. Dont loose hope.. Good Luck all.
AD/PP/Houston (VT?)/BAL . Lose hope now ! Have prepared the OPT extenson and plan to submit tm. Hope for the next year. Feel so bad as thinking of going through this again next year.
At least you have OPT extension… I’m done with OPT this year 🙁
Need to apply for TN visa later this month or move to UK if I don’t get receipt 🙁 🙁
Also AD/PP BAL Global here…
Jonathon, I am also waiting to hear back about the visa but I have a gut feeling that lady luck wont side with me this time. Trying to think of a plan B and the UK crossed my mind. Since you mentioned UK as your plan B/C, I wanted to ask you what the options were for moving into the UK and how it works in terms of getting Jobs and visas and that fun stuff
UK has a point-system visa evaluation process, unlike this H-1B lottery fiasco. So you are purely evaluated on job sponsorship, education level, language capability, income and current funding level, and other metrics. Obviously, the most important factor in acquiring a UK work permit is to have employer sponsorship.
In order to be eligible, you will need to score a minimum of 70 points for the Skilled Worker Permit (Tier 2 Visa):
+ 10 points for English language ability
+ 30 points for having Employer Sponsorship
+15 points for PhD
+10 points for Master or Bachelor
+20 points for annual earnings of over 32,000 British Pounds
As you can see, it’s a very rationalized and logical evaluation system. There is no lottery or cap limit, and applications can be submitted throughout the year. Duration can be up to 3 years, with 2 years of extension allowed. After 5 years of Tier-2 Work Permit, you will be eligible to apply and transfer status to Permanent Residency.
I wonder if all the BAL people have the same attorney/paralegal assisting them. That might explain the delay
Even if they have a paralegal, it may still take a long time. Receiving and re-entering hundreds of random Receipt #s everyday – seems like the most tedious job ever. And one Attorney might be working with multiple large companies each with several hundred applications.
Got confirmation mail from BAL a while back Non Master/PP/VT
I called my attorney but they said no update for me, so I guess in my case, it’s not due to the delay by the firm but more likely I am not get selected. Have you guys called the attorney to confirm ?
I guess we’ll know for certain if PP petitions get selected at the end of this month. By April 28 the receipt notifications for PP cases should be out anyway. However, it’s still torturous for me…
And my BAL attorney (or her paralegal) stopped responding to me after I bugged her about how long it takes for BAL to post the receipt number to their system from the time they receipt it. Or she’s just too busy. *sigh*
atleast u have a good option. I had to go back to school for master becasue I didnt get last year. But on the bright side i will be done with my master’s next year….
Houston as well here!
Also BAL here. I know of one other person who got notified on Friday by them. After that silence…
Now I know of one more person from BAL who got it. Both people I know got it before Monday. They were AD / PP. My hopes are so low right now 🙁
Does the reciept number on the cashed check and Email..always match???
bump!
Did the receipts started coming for RQ/RP?
The theory seems to be incorrect. Actually when the tracker shows the application to be in acceptance mode, they use the term e-mailed and once it is moved to initial review, we will see the term mailed. The best example would be WAC1413251023.
So its still hard to say if there were processing either the PP and RP applications.
That is an extension application…
Similar for WAC1413251050
I think you are correct!
It’s really annoying that this entry process has to be manual. Half the people waiting for these visas probably have the skills to automate this process for them 😀
@Confused – tell that to USCIS. Tell them to just automate the email process so all receipts are pushed out on the same day. It’s certainly doable.
Unfortunately, our dear friends at USCIS probably does not know how to use this thing called “the internet” or this other thing called “CRM automation”… 😉
WAC1413250023 shows emailed in initial review
Please don’t get confused. The tracking number provided by you is in acceptance mode.
if so we should think only messages with premium processing are called as PP
is that right?
saisri,
For lot of statuses (like RFE, RFE RR etc), the status is same for PP and non-PP. It is very much possible that status for IR is same for PP and non-PP and the only variation of email is in Acceptance status.
The only way to refute this theory is following PP cases that are in Acceptance status right now. And look at them again when they move to IR. If the status starts using “mail” instead of “email”, then it proves SR’s theory.
I think the theory is correct…Every receipt now shows mailed not emailed
Latest WAC number WAC1413751654
AD/PP/CA still waiting, keeping track of 5 other AD/PP friends, 3 got their receipts
Well, at least it’s nice to know that AD selection rate is relatively high. Just by some anecdotal, biased samples I’ve heard from people on here, it seems that AD people have at least 50%+ chance.
Did the three of your friends got the receipt today?
Any news from BAL lawyers?
Nope, AD/PP also waiting from them. Some people I know have heard from them however.
Same here. BAL Global. No news. I think I’ve broken their online Status Check portal 🙂
If it turns out that the BAL lawyers are just horribly delayed in updating receipts, I might actually break their portal 😀
From my past experience dealing with them, they are quite slow in their response, probably because they only have so few staff. They are probably processing hundreds or not thousands of H-1B applications and receipts this year…
Also, the Online Status tracker is updated manually by their staff, so it might take a long long time for them to physically input each receipt number.
If it turns out that the BAL lawyers are just horribly delayed in updating receipts, I might actually break something 😀
Tried to call them but I was unable to reach them…I think they are pretty busy let’s stay strong!!…Texas here!
yes, my attorney is from BAL & I received email confirmation on Monday that my petition is selected. Receipt number is updated in status chek.
There seem to still be a lot of AD/PP people still waiting. I guess the number of AD applications this year were very high as well. Either that, or they are still some that have to be processed, which I think is unlikely.
I’m wondering if USCIS keeps candidates on waitlist so that they could be considered in place of cases with RFEs which get converted to rejections. Do the applicants get any notification that they are wait listed?
No they don`t.. It is not clear if there is a wait list neither…
More AD applications is bad news
when can we know the Receipt Number after being selected in the USCIS H1B lottery system . Actually in my case though I got selected in lottery system but not yet received the Receipt Number (WAC, EAC, SRC, and LIN).
This morning I got mail from my lawyer “Great news, we’ve received confirmation from USCIS that your petition was selected in the lottery to be reviewed for this year’s H-1B cap!”
When I asked my lawyer they got the confirmation e-mail not the receipt number. They are waiting for the receipt by mail.
How come we don’t receive the receipt number? Is something wrong?
Mine was Premium processing and non- Advanced degree
Please suggest
The only way to know for sure is to actually get the Receipt # via email or postal mail. I have no idea how your attorney would be so sure without receiving that critical piece of information. Everything else is speculation…
“Your check has been cashed” thta is y your lawyer is so confident about it. It happened wit me too. On Thursday 10 th April, my lawyer said he can see the check has been cashed and you are selected in the lottery. on Friday I got the recipt. Mine was AD/PP/CSC.
Does the reciept number on the cashed check and Email..always match???
See as per my Lawyer, she said she had check number for my petition and as she noticed check has been cashed she emailed me about the good news and eventually I got the confirmation email on the second day. So it doesnt actually matter…
What is the latest guys.
hey guys! Help me out here….
i am extremely tensed about the lottery results…i am not able to concentrate on anything else….here are my 3 questions…can someone please answer?
1) I applied thru 2 companies (CTS and also another local consultancy)
Both under regular, non AD category, will i have 2 entries in lottery or only 1?
2) Is my probability math correct?
20k out of 172.5k is for AD
~ 65k/152.5k *100 = Approx 42% probability….since i applied through 2 companies, will this probability jump to almost 84%??
3) When the hell will the regular NON AD cases get accepted/denied mails by? i can’t concentrate on anything else 🙁
Dude ur calculation is some where wrong. Taking ur approcah if u had applied for 3 H1 then ur chances = 42*3 = 126% (Not possible)
Please revisit PnR,CnR again. No Offence plz
(A U B) = A + B – (A & B) = 0.42+0.42-(0.42 * 0.42) = 66%
(How are you an engineer, if you dont even know basic math?)
take it easy dude! you are no einstein ….i’ve been a little rusty on my maths…that’s why it was a question for the larger audience……
Haha! Good luck for you!
dude, you got me all confused now….by your formula
what is the probability for someone with 3 entries?
AUBUC= A+B+C -(A*B*C)??? this doesn’t make sense as this will be greater than 100%
I did this on the back of a napkin just for you,
P( A U B) = P( A) + P (B) – P(A)P(B)
LETS SAY P(A U B U C) = P( D U C)
THEN P(A U B U C) = P( D) + P (C) – P( D)P(C)
=P(A)+P(B)-P(A)P(B)+P(C)-(P(C)[P(A)+P(B)-P(A)P(B)])
=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)-P(A)P(B)-P(A)P(C)-P(B)P(C)+P(A)P(B)P(C)
you dont need to be an einstein to extrapolate to this, you just need to have the intelligence of a tenth grader, Which , for some reason , The indian IT firm never got around to check during the recruitment..
Dude, it’s not like that. It’s much easier to think of the probability of failure.
If you have N entries and the probability of success for each one is P, then the probability of failure is (1-P) each. The overall probability of failure is (1-P)^N. Obviously the overall probability of success is [1-(1-P)^N]. Now my question is: WHAT DO YOU THINK OF HAVING MULTIPLE ENTRIES? DO YOU KNOW THAT YOUR ACTION WILL KICK SOME PHD HOLDERS FROM STANFOR, MIT,…. OUT OF THE COUNTRY?
1) I applied thru 2 companies (CTS and also another local consultancy)
Both under regular, non AD category, will i have 2 entries in lottery or only 1?
Ans: You will have 2 entries in lottery
2) Is my probability math correct?
20k out of 172.5k is for AD
~ 65k/152.5k *100 = Approx 42% probability….since i applied through 2 companies, will this probability jump to almost 84%??
Ans: Wrong your luck will be still 42% (marginaly more may be)
3) When the hell will the regular NON AD cases get accepted/denied mails by? i can’t concentrate on anything else
Ans: By start of May Attorneys will start receiving the mail. Max by end or may everybody should get acceptance/Rejection mail (Provided company doesn’t holds the information)
[This time line excludes the person which gets selected in case of rejection of a lottery winning case]
thanks for your reply!
1. Yes, you will have 2 entries entering the lottery amongst 152500 (remaining petitions after AD lottery)
2. Your Math is wrong. According to your math, if you apply with 3 companies then your probability will go upto ~126% which is incorrect.
Here is how you should calculate the probability of “atleast one petition being picked in the lottery” if you have applied from more than one sponsors.
Lets say,
T = number of tickets sold before lottery (after AD lottery) = 172500 – 20,000 = 152500
W = number of winners to be picked amongst T number of petitions = 65,000 (Regular Cap)
P = Number of petitions you applied thru different sponsors(in other words, P is the number of lottery tickets you purchased) = 1 for many people, 2 or 3 for some of them(or may be more than that for some insanely desperate creatures!)
Now lets find the probability your petition being part of winning lottery tickets with just one petition applied by you,
the Formula is 1 – (( T – W ) / T )
= 1 – ( 152500 – 65000) / 152500 = 1 – 87500 / 152500
= 0.4262295 (Which is 42.62% of being part of the winning tickets)
Now, lets consider you bought one more ticket (applied from one another sponsor).
Reduce the numerator and dino by 1 and get the next fraction.
1 – (87499 / 152499 )
= 0.4262323 (which is almost the same as first ticket being part of the winning lottery).
But for calculation of getting picked in “atleast in one of the petitions” we need the probability of “not getting picked” for each of the petitions.
So, probability of not getting picked in petition 1 is, 0.573770 and 2nd petition is 0.57376769
(repeat this if more than 2 petitions!)
Multiplying these two values gives the probability of “not being picked in both petitions” which is 0.573770 X 0.57376769 = 0.329210 which is 32.92%
Finanlly, the formula to calculate the probability of “atleast 1 ticket” being part of the winning lottery, 1 minus ” the probablity of not being picked in both petitions” = 1 – 0.329210 = 0.670789 or 67.07% which is ~24% higher probability compared to applying one petition.
Multiply both decimal numbers to obtain this.
To summarize the numbers for people who are confused, (applicable only for Regular Quota, as the exact number of AD petitions were not reveled by USCIS, I cannot calculate the exact % of prabability, however they stand better chance than Regular quota guys irrespective of the number of sponsors they have applied from because they get a second chance in the lottery along with regular quota if they don’t get thru AD lottery).
So here are the numbers,
Probability of Non-AD Quota guy getting selected in lottery with 1 petition(one sponsor) is 42.62% not getting selected is 57.38%
Probability of Non-AD Quota guy getting selected in “atleast 1 petition” in the lottery with 2 petitions goes up to 67.07 and not getting selected in both petitions is 32.93%
Probability of Non-AD Quota guy getting selected in “atleast 1 petition” in the lottery with 3 petitions goes up to 81.11% and not getting selected in all 3 petitions is 18.89%
For people who have applied with 4 or more sponsors, I believe they shouldn’t care about the numbers, as there is high probability of getting picked in atleast 1 lottery. But if they still wish to know, they should be able to calculate themselves!
I don’t know. But I hope you guys who submit multiple applications opportunists will never get selected or bring sloppy and cheap labor to the US.
Just see how you can’t even do the math. My boss who interviewed you guys from indian consulting companies got disgusted by your fake resumes. People with “5 years of SQL programming” can’t even write a simple SQL code; peole “experienced in Excel” don’t even know how to make pivot table. Please!!!!stay away from dragging US down to your third world srandard!! Don’t shamelessly take away hopes of other hard working and contributing people by committing tricks and fraud!!!
I heard Immigration reform will happen this summer and H4 people will be allowed to work from this year. Is that true? Then I don’t need to worry about H1b.
Check last 2 years news Mar-June 2013/Mar-June 2012.
u will get similar news every year.
No offense but if it is true then all lungi people will take benefits of it. They will start messing around with their wife too.
I doubt it…
H4,
Like others said, nothing is finalized yet and it still has a long way to go. Don’t depend on it yet.
AD/PP/VT..I think it’s game over for us folks. Time to head back
Same here, I hate the plan B
Whether you hate Plan B or not, it’s not really a choice right? At a certain time in the next week, we all have to confront the reality.
What is your Plan B anyway?
And FYI, it’s not over, yet. USCIS is still in the process of sending out both PP AD and PP Non-AD receipts. They are not sent by any particular order because both fall under PP, which must be sent out before April 28.
Dude. Please. Just. Have. Some. Patience. Until. April. 28.
Enough said. If you think it’s over, it’s over. Pack your bags tonight and head back to India tomorrow morning. Simple solution.
I am waiting for regular/PP/CA. What do you thing. Is it over for us?
Well you cant say but just prepare for the worse. You can start getting your bags together if u are from India
I wonder what is happening. The frequency with which I see people posting about acceptances is lowering a lot. Maybe PP is indeed getting close to its end and now there is a time gap until regular petitions arrive by mail…
That could be actually true 🙁
Lets not get into conclusions until April 28th.. Lets have some hope till then 🙂