275k H1B Registrations Submitted to USCIS for Total Count FY 2021

Total H1B Registrations Received for FY 2021 is 275k, 46% Masters

In H1B Visa by KumarUpdated : 30 Comments

USCIS earlier today announced a press release indicating the overall H1B registrations received by them as part of the New H1B registration process, where H1B sponsors filed H1B applications  for their employees or prospects as registrations in Online H1B registration tool built by USCIS. They have previously announced completion of H1B Registration Lottery Selection Process, now today they have shared the numbers, also confirmed the filing dates and additional details. We will cover all of those in this article.

Summary of USCIS Press Release – 275K registrations

Below are the various topics address by USCIS in their news released today.

  • H1B Petition Filing Dates: USCIS confirmed the previous information stating that all employers, with selected valid registrations, can file H1B petitions with USCIS starting from April 1st.  Employers can only file H1B FY 2021 Petition, if they have registered the applicant in the H1B registration system as part of the new process and USCIS has selected them through random selection also called as Lottery Process. Employers for the selected applicants will be able to print a H1B registration selection notice and that has to be attached with the H1B petition filing. It is a I-797C form and looks like below: You can check out Sample H1B Registration Selection Notice for full details and what fields mean.
H1B Visa Registration Selection Notice Summary
  • Total H1B Registrations Filed Count : USCIS received a whopping 275,000 unique H1B registrations or applications in the new H1B Registration online system for fiscal year 2021.  This is the first time USCIS has received so many applications (registrations) in the history of H1B Program. The previous highest was 236,000 petitions in FY 2017.  You can check H1B Cap Reach History, total filings numbers to look at past data. Our prediction was about 230k to 260k petitions in our H1B 2021 Lottery Predictions, the actuals are pretty close with 5% error from 260k.
  • US Masters Registrations Count : USCIS for the first time gave the split during the filing season and they say about 46% of the petitions filed were in US Masters Category. If you look the numbers, it comes down to 126,500 applications or registrations. Some other
  • How many Employers – Accounts Created : There were 40,000 registration accounts created. Technically you can think of this as 40,000 employers have filed H1B registrations this year.
  • Country Counts for Filings : USCIS says that India and China accounted for about 81% of the total submitted registrations. Below is the split.
    • India H1B Registrations Count : 67.7% of total registrations = 186,175
    • China H1B Registrations Count : 13.2% of total registrations = 36,300
  • Online H1B Petitions Not available : USCIS reaffirmed that unlike other petitions or form types, H1B petition cannot be filed online and employers need to submit full H1B petition with Registration notice in paper form within 90 days. It should include the registration selection notice as well.
  • US Masters Eligibility Proof : They also highlighted that all the H1B registrations selected in US Masters category need to establish their eligibility of US Masters at the time of filing the petition and during the processing time of the H1B petition.
  • General H1B Requirements : USCIS reiterates that H1B registration process does not really relieve them from submitting all the evidence that is required for establishing the H1B petition eligibility such as LCA, Client letters, Agreements, Job duties, etc.
  • H1B Registration System Feedback : USCIS says that the new process of registration was well received by all the users and they gave good feedback.  They also did a lot of public outreach, in fact they conducted webinars, gave out of info to educate the stakeholders.
  • Modernized Process, Savings: USCIS says that the new modernized process has reduced a lot of paper and data exchanges between them and the H1B Sponsors. They also say there were limited technical issues too…and they believe that the new system is one way to modernize the H1B Program.

You may watch the YouTube Video below that has all the update covered here.

Total H1B Applications Count, Stats, Probabilities for FY 2021

Below is the summary of the total H1B applications( registrations) count for FY 2021 season.

 Description of FY 2021 Stat Total Numbers
Total H1B Applications( Registrations) 275,000
Total Registered Accounts ( Employers) 40,000
Total US Masters Quota Filings 126,500  ( 46% of Total)
Total Regular Quota Category Filings 148,500  ( 54% of Total )
Total filings from Indian Nationals 186,175  ( 67% of Total )
Total filings from Chinese Nationals 36,300    (13.2% of Total )

Based on the filings, your (approximate) probability stats were like below. I am not a math expert but tried to do it. Please correct me, if wrong 🙂

Thanks to Amit for helping correct the math below and Sreejith for validating it.

Regular Quota Probability, Counts

  • Lottery Step 1 Overall probability: 65,000/275,000 = 23.63%
  • Regular Quota Applicants Probability = 23.63%
  • Selected from Regular Quota : 23.63%*148,500 = 35,110
  • Selected from Masters in First Round : 23.63%*126500 = 29,990

Masters Quota Probability, Counts

  • Remaining : 126,500 – 29,990 = 96,600
  • Probability of Selection in Round 2 US Masters = 20,000/96,600 = 20.7%
  • Total Masters Selected in Second round = 20,000

Summary of Probabilities and Counts

  • Chances of masters to get selected => 49,990/126,500 = 39.51%
  • Chances of general getting selected = 23.63%
  • Total US Masters selected : 49,990
  • Total Regular Quota selected : 35,110

Did you submit H1B Registration for FY 2021 ?  In general, the registration process is new and also during H1B application processing, the wait can be long and frustrating to see your status not move….Add your case to tracker

Track your H1B Registration, Case

Anonymously Track your H1B Registration, Case - Share and Get updated from Community.

What was NOT covered in the USCIS press release ?

They have not covered any details regarding the below items

  • If there would be second round of H1B lottery or registration selection process
  • If there was one, when will that be ? Is it June 30th or later ?
  • No details on COVID-19 and if any changes to the H1B filing timelines
  • They have not indicated anything on the Premium Processing too…
  • How long the unselected applicants have to wait…

What are your thoughts on this ? What do you think of the probabilities ? Add your thoughts in comments…

Reference : USCIS Press Release

   

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Comments ( 30 )

  1. H1B Unselected

    Hi Kumar,

    As it’s been a month after the H1B 2021 lottery results are announced, do we know how many petitions are filed by the employers so far?. There are few views like there will be more dropouts, duplicates, voids in the selected petitions considering the economy situation. Is there any chance for second round of lottery by June 30th?.

    thanks.

  2. Vijay

    have got selected in lottery, what are the chances of getting visa status approved without Client letter (No master’s regular quota)

    1. administrator
      Kumar

      Vijay,
      Well, very hard to say without knowing anything…If it cannot be submitted for a reason and there is supporting documentation, should be ok…but again, depends.

  3. Not selected :(

    Hi Kumar, I know you said you’re not sure if there is a 2nd round of lottery for applicants who weren’t selected, BUT is it possible free spots from people who drop out going to be filled on a rolling basis?

    Thank you for this blog!

    1. administrator
      Kumar

      Not selected,
      Well, the free spots would need to filled again by lottery. The way it works is, let’s assume we have 100 slots for H1B, USCIS would select like 115 in lottery, as they know that about 15 of them would be denied based on stats. Now, in current economy, out of the 115 selected, let say only 100 file, then they are short by 15. So, they would select that 15 in second round… It all depends on how many would not file…Does that make sense ?

      1. Not selected :(

        Hi Kumar, thanks for your answer. Yes that makes sense. Following up to that answer, I wonder if they are waiting to do the 2nd lottery after the deadline for selected applicants to file? Unfortunately my current OPT expires in May…so that means I can’t get the Cap-Gap Extension if the draw the 2nd lottery in June.

  4. Optimistic

    The thing that I don’t understand is where those Indian and Chinese applicants were before 2012. I mean what changed since then the number of Indian and Chinese applicants increased significantly. Do you guys have any idea?

    1. Sreejith

      Just before 2012 , ie 2007-2012, there were less IT projects. Thanks to recession. Before recession there was similar rush. Post 2012, US economy boomed and all Indians and Chinese who wanted to jump out of their home country started to apply again as employers in US offered IT projects.

      To be frank a good chunk of Indians who come to US are those who are not able to survive in India or those who are not able to do well in their career in India…..lol 🙂

      1. rk

        An average guy in US can save much more than a bright candidate in India, just due to $-Rs conversion. If $1=Rs1 and value of is same, many would not bother to come to US. Even if some one is doing well in India, it still makes sense financially to come to US and save much more for 5 years and go back.

    2. administrator
      Kumar

      Optimistic,
      Well, it is not just for this year…Usually what happens is, all the unselected people add up every year and that’s the reason you see so much of applications filed…

  5. Dat Bui

    In your post the chances of masters to get selected is incorrect.

    NOT CORRECT : Chances of masters to get selected => 23.63% + 20.7% = 44.39%

    CORRECT: Chances of masters to get selected =>(1 – (1 – 0.2363) * (1 – 0.207)) * 100% = 39.43859 %

  6. H.

    I think the USCIS has selected the extra spots to account for potential withdrawal, denial, non-filling, etc. So the percentages of selection for both Adv and Non-Adv are higher than the number that USCIS published. Immigrationgirl.com discussed the issue.

    I am wondering what would be the chances for the 2nd round lottery. I think some people may withdraw their applications because of COVID-19 issues.

    Also, if they have to select from the pool of “submitted” applications, will they favor Adv over Non-Adv applications?

    1. administrator
      Kumar

      H.,
      yes, they would have done some extra percentages for sure…It can happen.
      In general, the lottery is favored for US Masters quota.

  7. PD

    Oops more typos:

    Regular selected = 65/275000 * 148,500 = 35100
    Probability for general (non-master’s applicant) = 35100/148500 => 23.6% (about 1/4th)

    Masters selected = 65/275000*126500 + 20000 (all of these are for master’s only)= 49900
    Probability for master’s applicant = 49900/126500 => 39.4% (about 2/5th)

    As expected probability of master’s applicant getting selected is higher than regular applicant.
    Also, total H1b selected = 35100 + 49900 = 85000 (as it should be 65k+20k).

    @Amit: Shouldn’t it be 23.63% (selected in first round)+(1-23.63/100)*(20000/96600)*100 (not selected in first round but selected in second)= 39.4% ?

    1. JD

      Question: Did USCIS publish the total US Masters and Regular Quota selected? Otherwise, how do you know they actually selected 35,100 regular and 29,990 masters? Because is it not possible that more masters get selected in first round, or vice versa?

      1. Sreejith

        They didn’t publish the exact number of masters and regular petitions separately which were selected. So all the calculations on this page are based on the ratio of masters to regular applications in the initial submission pool.

      2. administrator
        Kumar

        JD,
        It is based on probabilities, they have given the split of submissions that 46% were US Masters Registrations.

  8. PD

    Typos corrected:

    Regular selected = 65/275000 * 148,500 = 35100
    Probability for general (non-master’s applicant) = 35100/148500 => 23.6% (about 1/4th)

    Masters selected = 65/275000*126500 + 20000 (all of these are for master’s only)= 49900
    Probability for master’s applicant = 49900/148500 => 33.6% (about 1/3rd)

    As expected probability of master’s applicant getting selected is higher than regular applicant.
    Also, total H1b selected = 35100 + 49900 = 85000 (as it should be 65k+20k).

    1. administrator
      Kumar

      Thanks PD for your calculations as well. I think Amit’s calculations look right… The reason you do not do do it that way is, in second round, there is no Regular Quota consideration, so you would not do any subtraction from 1…I will let Amit answer it in detail…

    1. administrator
      Kumar

      Amit,
      Well, I am not sure how to interpret it as fiscal year, do they mean fiscal year quota or USCIS fiscal year of 2020 or 2021…

  9. Amit

    Probability calculation is not correct..
    Let me do it here:

    Lottery step 1 probability: 65000/275000 = 23.63%
    Selected from Masters : 23.63%*126500 = 29990
    Selected from General : 23.63%*148500 = 35110

    Masters chance 2 :
    Remaining : 126500-29990 –> 96600
    Chances of selection in chances 2 –> 20000/96600 = 20.7%
    Total masters selected : 49990
    Total General selected : 35110

    Chances of masters to get selected => 23.63% + 20.7% = 44.39%
    Chances of general getting selected -> 23.63%

    1. Sreejith

      I would agree with your math. This is the closest to correct explanation which we can assume based on the given facts. USCIS could have easily mentioned how many cases they picked in each category. Wondering why they didn’t.

    2. administrator
      Kumar

      Thanks a lot Amit ! You are right ! I thought too much. I have corrected it.

      My logic was trying to do revere calculations to meet close to 5000 and it was totally wrong…the reason is as per regulation, USCIS said that individuals with US Masters degrees earn 19.6 percent more than individuals with bachelor’s degree. The change in lottery order will result in 16% ( about 5,340 more) more US Masters students to be selected for H1B petition filings. I went back and look at the sample size in regulation….The distribution in that was about Total 192k, Masters 55.9K and Regular 137K….Now that the distribution changed, I was thrown off and thinking how can it be….

    3. Sreejith

      Hey Amit,

      Minor correction in your overall percentage of masters. Overall selection percentage of masters = 49990/126500 = 39.51 %

      Regards

  10. PD

    It should be corrected to:

    Regular selected = 65/275000 * 148,500 = 35100
    Probability for general (non-master’s applicant) = 35100/148500 => 23.6% (about 1/4th)

    Masters selected = 65/27500 * 148,500 + 20000 = 49900
    Probability for master’s applicant = 49900/148500 => 33.6% (about 1/3rd)

    As expected probability of master’s applicant getting selected is higher than regular applicant.
    Also, total H1b selected = 35100 + 49900 = 85000 (as it should be 65k+20k).

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