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H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Predictions – USCIS Data, Trends

Big question, “Will there be H1B Visa 2015 Lottery?”

H1B 2015 Season is over. Check out H1B Visa 2016 Lottery Predictions

Every year, since 2010, around the H1B season start time, I review all the past USCIS data, look at current trends, macro-economic factors and provide lottery predictions for H1B Visa filings for that fiscal year. It is hard to believe that I have been doing H1B predictions for the past 4 years and the predictions done have been very consistent with the actual results. This article will focus on H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Predictions based on real data!

Before we dive in to predictions, as a baseline, let’s look at the past USCIS data and US macro economics data.

USCIS H1B Visa Cap reach Dates by Year and US Economy Performance

As someone said “a picture is worth thousand words”, below is the graphical illustration of USCIS data plotted with the cap reach dates by year since 2000.  If you look closely, as mentioned in the illustration, the H1B Visa cap reach dates is very much in-line with the performance of the US economy. If there were signs of recession, the H1B cap reach dates extends as far as October or even sometimes even to January as the case with FY 2011.  As the US economy recovers from recession, the demand for H1B Visa workers increases as well, which is obvious by the H1B Cap reach dates moving close to April, as you can see for FY 2012 and 2013. Ultimately the H1B filing trend leads to a lottery as the demand exceeds the H1B cap numbers, which you can see for FY 2009, 2013.

H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Prediction Analysis

H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Prediction Analysis

There are many factors that influence the H1B Workers demand, below are some of them that influence the H1B lottery possibility for FY 2015.

  • Performance of US economy : US economy is doing fairly well, if you look at the below GDP growth rate, it looks good. It grew at 3.2% in Q4 of 2013. IMF raised GDP growth forecast of US to 2.8% for 2014, which is a good sign considering the original forecast.  This is a positive sign for companies to forecast their growth and hire more people. It is good for H1B visa workers demand.

US Economy and H1B Visa 2015 Impact

  • Unemployment Rate in US : The unemployment rate is falling consistently as you can see in the below trend and currently stands at 6.6%. It means that there is more demand for workforce in USA and it implies that more demand for H1B workers as well.

US Unemployment Rate H1B Visa Impact 2015

  • H1B Visa Applicants Not Selected in FY 2014 Lottery :  USCIS received about 124,000 petitions for a total of 85,000 visas last year for FY 2014.  You can expect a good amount of the 39,000 applicants, who were not selected in H1B 2014 lottery, to apply for this FY 2015 quota.  This creates more supply of the H1B Visa petitioners for this year filing.
  • Increased International Students: As you can see in below graph based on Institute of International Education Student Data  , the International students enrolled in US schools increased consistently since 2009-10 academic year. There are much more number of students, who would potentially apply for H1B Visa to work in America.

International Students to USA and H1B Impact

  • 17 month OPT extension Students: Apart from the regular Masters completed students, the STEM category students, who did not apply for H1B visa last year with 17 month OPT extension could also apply for H1B visa for this FY 2015 quota.
  • H1B Rules Tightened, More RFEs, Fees Increased : Over the period of last three years, H1B rules are more stringent with Neufeld H1B visa memo introduced  in Jan 2010 and H1B visa filing fee was raised by $2000 during recession, which is in effect until September 2014. Also, there have been good number of H1B RFEs and Rejections in the last few years for the applications that were not compliant with process. With the Infosys Visa Fraud and settlement of $34 Million late last year,  USCIS will have more scrutiny on H1Bs filed by big MNCs.  All of these discourage employees to file H1B Visa petitions, unless there is a compelling need for an employer to seek high skilled temporary worker on H1B visa.
  • H1B Visa cap and Immigration Reform : There has been some discussion on Immigration reform and raising H1B cap to 110,000 for regular quota and masters quota to 25,000, but nothing has moved  yet and we may have to live with existing cap. This does not help the increase in H1B Visa workers demand and only helps  for lottery.

Now, the million dollar question

Will there be H1B Lottery for 2015  Quota ?   What is the Prediction ?

Based on above data, despite the tightening of H1B Visa rules,  with US economy doing fairly well, US unemployment rate decreasing , increase in international students seeking jobs both with masters and OPTs, and the unlucky applicants who were picked in H1B lottery last year, we will have Lottery for H1B Visa FY 2015 Quota We could expect about 150K to 180 K petitions for this fiscal year.  If you have not planned yet, check out the H1B Visa 2015 Plan and Steps, including article on How to find H1B Sponsors for FY 2015.

What is your  speculation? Will we have H1B lottery for this year ?

How many petitions can we expect ?

Credits : for US GDP and Unemployment Graphs :  http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/

   

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391 Comments

  1. Congrats to all those received receipts….
    I m still hoping, anyone knows till what date we can expect h1b receipts.

    Reply
  2. Hi All,
    Just got mail ..i made it …So happy 🙂
    RP/Non-AD
    WAC14145XXXXX
    Thank you all the guys here and Good luck to all

    Reply
  3. How long they generally take to send all/final the receipts to selected applications?
    anyone has any idea? when we can stop worrying?

    Reply
  4. Today i received a mail from Attorney saying that the application was received.
    RP/Non-AD
    WAC14142XXXXX
    Thank you very much to all the guys here and good luck to all

    Reply
    • Hi SB , could you please give us more details like which quota(Master’s / Regular) and which Processing (Premium/Regular) and which processing center (Vermont/California)???

      Reply
  5. I got it too!!! Non-Ad/RP/WACVery happy and excited. Thank you all for your good words, support and ton of information you provide. This is just like an H1 family sharing joys, stress, anxiety with each other.

    I know there are many who really are in a situation to continue their stay here. It may be from a career perspective, family perspective or financial perspective and this lottery selection is a significant turning point. I really pray you get selected. Don’t get too stressed out instead stay calm and keep praying. God can do miracles even later, maybe you will be picked from a list of waitlisted applications. God did miracle to me and I am not ashamed to tell this to all who make fun of the situation. Me and my wife both work here and our kid study here. Its not easy if someone says to go back to India and settle there. Any transfers or relocation are not easy and especially from a different country. Not to mention about being in a state of job less. So we prayed, YES We prayed so that God gives us HIS blessings (NOT VISA but blessing to lead a good stress free life) in abundance and He did. Both me and my wife fell under the lottery and we both are very very happy and thankful to God. So dont lose hope and keep praying. Crying baby gets milk so all needy and geniune folks will get it for sure. All the best!!

    Reply
  6. final got ittttttt…. yahoooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    On April 10, 2014, we received this I129 PETITION FOR A NONIMMIGRANT WORKER, and mailed you a notice describing how we will process your case. Please follow any instructions on this notice. You will be notified by mail when a decision is made, or if the office needs something from you. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or contact our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

    Reply
  7. 1, Latest by when USCIS will notify the employer about the application not selected in lottery or not.

    2. If the application is selected, latest by when employer knows about the same for regular processing.

    Reply
  8. Is there a way to look at SEVIS and see if my application was picked up in regular processing? My application was filed by a large financial firm in the north east and I do not have access to their files. I have been asked to wait for the receipt to be sent to the lawyers who would then contact me letting me know if I was selected or not. I plan to take admission in a CPT college if ( and I hope not) i don’t get selected in the lottery.
    Can anyone help?

    Reply
  9. Today afternoon I received notification with the WAC no. from my attorney that my application has been selected AD/PP/CA.
    Do not lose hope till 28th. It has been issued from USCIS on 17th.
    Good luck

    Reply
  10. What would be the last date for all petitions status ?? I have applied in General category regular process, Do i still have any chances of getting ??

    Reply
  11. Today my employer informed my application got selected in lottery.
    Normal/PP/Vermont.
    Didn’t get through last year,long wait is over now..so happy.
    Thanks for all updates,All the best everyone.

    Reply
  12. guys…please let me know if the check gets cashed for everyone selected in lottery ( Premium and non premium both ) on 10th april itself ??

    I heard sevis changes as soon as check gets cashed and my univ said there is no change still so im worried…im under AD/Regular/CSC

    Reply
  13. Guys,

    Can please anyone tell me the last date to recieve the AD/PP/CA reciept numbers if picked in lottery, i just asked my attorney, he said today is the last date and if we don’t get by today then it’s done ..

    Reply
  14. My employer has applied for H1b through regular processing. I have not received any receipts till now. Is the game over for me

    Reply
    • how do you know , they applied from regular category? did you get any acknowledgement stating that?

      In fact, as far as i know, 9-10 known persons applied for h1b, no one get any reply as of now, including me.
      I think, still we have hope.. for next 15 days

      Reply
      • Actually, We are 4 friends applied same time but 3 of them got email form employee to puck in lottery. Still I am not, is there any chance for me.

        Reply
  15. USCIS H-1B Premium Processing to Begin April 28
    On April 28, 2014, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will begin premium processing for H-1B petitions subject to the fiscal year 2015 cap, including H-1B petitions seeking an exemption from the fiscal year cap for individuals who have earned a U.S. master’s degree or higher. USCIS first announced that we would begin premium processing for H-1B cap cases no later than April 28 in a news release on March 25. USCIS provides premium processing service for certain employment-based petitions and guarantees a 15-calendar-day processing time.

    http://www.uscis.gov/news/uscis-h-1b-premium-processing-begin-april-28

    Reply
    • Hi There
      Could you please tell me any one. I am going with premium process but I did not get any Email from my employee. I little bit scared about that

      Reply
      • I got ittttttttt… its non AD – RP…

        On April 10, 2014, we received this I129 PETITION FOR A NONIMMIGRANT WORKER, and mailed you a notice describing how we will process your case. Please follow any instructions on this notice. You will be notified by mail when a decision is made, or if the office needs something from you. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or contact our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

        Reply
  16. I am in regular process Master ,
    Havent recieved any news? Do you know how long it generally take
    Do they send email or regular mail?
    I applied in CA center

    Reply
    • Who told you this? LOL
      Non PP Case will get the receipt as well if their case get picked up in Lottery..
      Just they will need to wait longer than the PP folks… 🙂

      Reply
  17. Wish USCIS had released about the total no of petitions sent till date in PP/Reg , PP/adv and non PP reg and non pp /adv.No where there is clear picture abt the exact quantities of ppl who made it till now.
    This way we have to keep our hopes alive till May,June ,July,August or Sept :(..
    And this will affect in my future planning too..

    Reply
  18. Hi All,

    I just want to update you that my non-ad petition/PP/California center has been selected in lottery and i got the receipt number from my employer today.

    Thanks you all!!!!!

    Reply
    • Name Satheesh
      Nationality India
      PetitionType New
      Center California Service Center-WAC
      Filing Date Apr 2nd, 2014
      Status Picked in Lottery -Waiting for Case Number
      Decision Date N/A
      Processing Time 18 days
      Processing Type New
      Quota Regular
      Additional Info FY 2015 Quota . Filed thorough a large MNC
      H1B Visa Applying experience:
      Created At: 2014-04-19 07:51:09
      Updated At: 2014-04-20 02:48:10

      Reply
  19. One more question, even though I know this isn’t recommended (but I’m getting so anxious) – What should your SEVIS record say if you actually have been selected in the lottery?

    Basically, is it the date that changes or is it the payment status or the expiration date or.. what? (I’m checking online)

    Reply
  20. I have a question. Say 1000 applications that were initially selected turn out to be fraudulent or missing information in any way, and therefore get rejected in the interview process. Do these 1000 H1Bs go to waste or do they pick up 1000 of the lottery rejected applications? Just curious.

    Reply
    • If 1000 selected petitions were rejected for a valid reason, they will pick another 1000 from the wait-list. Simply put, 1000 H1B’s won’t be wasted.

      However, if 1000 H1B USCIS approved cases were rejected during visa stamping (outside the US) process at various consulates, due to valid reasons, then those 1000 H1B’s are considered un-used. Simply put, bad luck for those not selected by the lottery.

      Others: If I am wrong, do correct me.

      Reply
    • Cim,
      usgrad is correct. Based on historical data, they select extra petitions to make-up for the withdrawn/rejected/denied petitions.

      Reply
      • Great. Thanks very much for the reply. This wait list that was mentioned, will you be notified if you’re on it or are ALL non-selected applications automatically on the wait list (for if any selected applications get rejected)?

        Reply

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