Big question, “Will there be H1B Visa 2015 Lottery?”
H1B 2015 Season is over. Check out H1B Visa 2016 Lottery Predictions
Every year, since 2010, around the H1B season start time, I review all the past USCIS data, look at current trends, macro-economic factors and provide lottery predictions for H1B Visa filings for that fiscal year. It is hard to believe that I have been doing H1B predictions for the past 4 years and the predictions done have been very consistent with the actual results. This article will focus on H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Predictions based on real data!
Before we dive in to predictions, as a baseline, let’s look at the past USCIS data and US macro economics data.
USCIS H1B Visa Cap reach Dates by Year and US Economy Performance
As someone said “a picture is worth thousand words”, below is the graphical illustration of USCIS data plotted with the cap reach dates by year since 2000. If you look closely, as mentioned in the illustration, the H1B Visa cap reach dates is very much in-line with the performance of the US economy. If there were signs of recession, the H1B cap reach dates extends as far as October or even sometimes even to January as the case with FY 2011. As the US economy recovers from recession, the demand for H1B Visa workers increases as well, which is obvious by the H1B Cap reach dates moving close to April, as you can see for FY 2012 and 2013. Ultimately the H1B filing trend leads to a lottery as the demand exceeds the H1B cap numbers, which you can see for FY 2009, 2013.
H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Prediction Analysis
There are many factors that influence the H1B Workers demand, below are some of them that influence the H1B lottery possibility for FY 2015.
- Performance of US economy : US economy is doing fairly well, if you look at the below GDP growth rate, it looks good. It grew at 3.2% in Q4 of 2013. IMF raised GDP growth forecast of US to 2.8% for 2014, which is a good sign considering the original forecast. This is a positive sign for companies to forecast their growth and hire more people. It is good for H1B visa workers demand.
- Unemployment Rate in US : The unemployment rate is falling consistently as you can see in the below trend and currently stands at 6.6%. It means that there is more demand for workforce in USA and it implies that more demand for H1B workers as well.
- H1B Visa Applicants Not Selected in FY 2014 Lottery : USCIS received about 124,000 petitions for a total of 85,000 visas last year for FY 2014. You can expect a good amount of the 39,000 applicants, who were not selected in H1B 2014 lottery, to apply for this FY 2015 quota. This creates more supply of the H1B Visa petitioners for this year filing.
- Increased International Students: As you can see in below graph based on Institute of International Education Student Data , the International students enrolled in US schools increased consistently since 2009-10 academic year. There are much more number of students, who would potentially apply for H1B Visa to work in America.
- 17 month OPT extension Students: Apart from the regular Masters completed students, the STEM category students, who did not apply for H1B visa last year with 17 month OPT extension could also apply for H1B visa for this FY 2015 quota.
- H1B Rules Tightened, More RFEs, Fees Increased : Over the period of last three years, H1B rules are more stringent with Neufeld H1B visa memo introduced in Jan 2010 and H1B visa filing fee was raised by $2000 during recession, which is in effect until September 2014. Also, there have been good number of H1B RFEs and Rejections in the last few years for the applications that were not compliant with process. With the Infosys Visa Fraud and settlement of $34 Million late last year, USCIS will have more scrutiny on H1Bs filed by big MNCs. All of these discourage employees to file H1B Visa petitions, unless there is a compelling need for an employer to seek high skilled temporary worker on H1B visa.
- H1B Visa cap and Immigration Reform : There has been some discussion on Immigration reform and raising H1B cap to 110,000 for regular quota and masters quota to 25,000, but nothing has moved yet and we may have to live with existing cap. This does not help the increase in H1B Visa workers demand and only helps for lottery.
Now, the million dollar question
“Will there be H1B Lottery for 2015 Quota ? What is the Prediction ?”
Based on above data, despite the tightening of H1B Visa rules, with US economy doing fairly well, US unemployment rate decreasing , increase in international students seeking jobs both with masters and OPTs, and the unlucky applicants who were picked in H1B lottery last year, we will have Lottery for H1B Visa FY 2015 Quota. We could expect about 150K to 180 K petitions for this fiscal year. If you have not planned yet, check out the H1B Visa 2015 Plan and Steps, including article on How to find H1B Sponsors for FY 2015.
What is your speculation? Will we have H1B lottery for this year ?
How many petitions can we expect ?
Credits : for US GDP and Unemployment Graphs : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/
Congrats to all those received receipts….
I m still hoping, anyone knows till what date we can expect h1b receipts.
Non Ad/ Regular/ Vermont received.
Late night yesterday
Hi All,
Just got mail ..i made it …So happy 🙂
RP/Non-AD
WAC14145XXXXX
Thank you all the guys here and Good luck to all
Congrats!!!. when your attorney got it ?
I’m not sure about that … i got the receipt number from my employer just now
How long they generally take to send all/final the receipts to selected applications?
anyone has any idea? when we can stop worrying?
Still waiting for my receipt…really worried now. all of my friends got through.
H4 to H1 second attempt..last year no luck..
I have already started packing..
Same here .. Hope almighty will show some grace ..
till when we can keep our hopes over getting results/receipts??
Got selected in lottery yesterday NON AD/RP/Vermont centre..Good luck for my fellow mates
Today i received a mail from Attorney saying that the application was received.
RP/Non-AD
WAC14142XXXXX
Thank you very much to all the guys here and good luck to all
Are there any hopes remaining for Advanced degree applications with regular processing?
Recieved my Notice yesterday
AD/RP/VT
Notice date : Apr 18th
Did anyone got NON-AD/ RP / California receipt number for IQTech Pro- TX ?
Hi, Anyone who is in process of H4 to H1 got receipt ?
Still waiting..
I am still waiting to get the receipt, where I applied for H4 to H1.. Does anybody got it? I’m hoping for the good luck this time, as last time mine didn’t get through lottery..
Me too waiting
Got selected in the lottery.. Best of luck to others
Whether you applied from h4.? With advanced degree? From which state center u applied..
YES ,RECEIVED
I’m very eagerly waiting to get my receipt – H4 to H1. This time the visa is very needful for me or I may leave to India to resume my job.. Still the thought makes me worried as my daughter already started schooling here..
Still waiting H4 to H1…
Very unhappy..have to go bak to India as i cant afford to take a break in IT career
From which state you applied for H4 – H1? Can you pls tell? I’m still waiting 🙁
Anybody from TCS got the receipt for NON-AD RP processing?
Not Yet waiting for the same.
Nope din get still.. waiting
They have not yet started to provide reciepts to employees… I think they are waiting for complete results!!
So we may need to wait upto May last week…
Still awaiting to hear from my employer! Non AD/RP, until when I could anticipate?
Has anyone applied through Kam Naidoo law office or Infovision?
Finally waiting game is over. I got receipt number (AD) today from CA service center.
Got a notification that I won the Lottery from my Employer. Checked the status and it says initial review .
Hi SB , could you please give us more details like which quota(Master’s / Regular) and which Processing (Premium/Regular) and which processing center (Vermont/California)???
Did any one from Tech M got receipt?
Yeah..Non AD/RP..got ack yesterday
Ram, How did you got ? thru your RM or Visa Cell?
Did anybody from CTS got the Receipt? Please let know.
+1 from vermont center
Did anybody from Wipro inc India got the Receipt?
Big No!! Still Waiting !!
I got it too!!! Non-Ad/RP/WACVery happy and excited. Thank you all for your good words, support and ton of information you provide. This is just like an H1 family sharing joys, stress, anxiety with each other.
I know there are many who really are in a situation to continue their stay here. It may be from a career perspective, family perspective or financial perspective and this lottery selection is a significant turning point. I really pray you get selected. Don’t get too stressed out instead stay calm and keep praying. God can do miracles even later, maybe you will be picked from a list of waitlisted applications. God did miracle to me and I am not ashamed to tell this to all who make fun of the situation. Me and my wife both work here and our kid study here. Its not easy if someone says to go back to India and settle there. Any transfers or relocation are not easy and especially from a different country. Not to mention about being in a state of job less. So we prayed, YES We prayed so that God gives us HIS blessings (NOT VISA but blessing to lead a good stress free life) in abundance and He did. Both me and my wife fell under the lottery and we both are very very happy and thankful to God. So dont lose hope and keep praying. Crying baby gets milk so all needy and geniune folks will get it for sure. All the best!!
final got ittttttt…. yahoooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On April 10, 2014, we received this I129 PETITION FOR A NONIMMIGRANT WORKER, and mailed you a notice describing how we will process your case. Please follow any instructions on this notice. You will be notified by mail when a decision is made, or if the office needs something from you. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or contact our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
Congratulations!
Was this RP/NON-AD/Vermont or Cali?
Non-AD and RP but dont know whether it is V or C
Does anyone know last date to receive info about Regular Processing? (Cali). If you haven’t received notice yet should you give up hope?
1, Latest by when USCIS will notify the employer about the application not selected in lottery or not.
2. If the application is selected, latest by when employer knows about the same for regular processing.
Is there a way to look at SEVIS and see if my application was picked up in regular processing? My application was filed by a large financial firm in the north east and I do not have access to their files. I have been asked to wait for the receipt to be sent to the lawyers who would then contact me letting me know if I was selected or not. I plan to take admission in a CPT college if ( and I hope not) i don’t get selected in the lottery.
Can anyone help?
Today afternoon I received notification with the WAC no. from my attorney that my application has been selected AD/PP/CA.
Do not lose hope till 28th. It has been issued from USCIS on 17th.
Good luck
What would be the last date for all petitions status ?? I have applied in General category regular process, Do i still have any chances of getting ??
Today my employer informed my application got selected in lottery.
Normal/PP/Vermont.
Didn’t get through last year,long wait is over now..so happy.
Thanks for all updates,All the best everyone.
Good..
what is last date for knowing status for PP petitions ?
28th
guys…please let me know if the check gets cashed for everyone selected in lottery ( Premium and non premium both ) on 10th april itself ??
I heard sevis changes as soon as check gets cashed and my univ said there is no change still so im worried…im under AD/Regular/CSC
Finally got picket up in the lottery.
AD/ Non-Premium… got regular mail to the lawyer.
Congrats! California or Vermont?
Its California.
All the best guys!
Congrats.:). Please let us know if your check was cashed long back ??I called my univ yesterday and they said no change im really worried now…
hi,
I don’t have information about the check right now, but USCIS said that they got my application on April 10th and they send a mail to the lawyer on April 15th.
Guys,
Can please anyone tell me the last date to recieve the AD/PP/CA reciept numbers if picked in lottery, i just asked my attorney, he said today is the last date and if we don’t get by today then it’s done ..
Hello Guys
I’m have applied for premium processing but I don’t have a update yet.How much longer do i need to wait ?
My employer has applied for H1b through regular processing. I have not received any receipts till now. Is the game over for me
how do you know , they applied from regular category? did you get any acknowledgement stating that?
In fact, as far as i know, 9-10 known persons applied for h1b, no one get any reply as of now, including me.
I think, still we have hope.. for next 15 days
Actually, We are 4 friends applied same time but 3 of them got email form employee to puck in lottery. Still I am not, is there any chance for me.
Hi All
Could you please tell me any one. I am going with premium process but I did not get any Email from my employee. I little bit scared about that
Received my Non AD – PP – Vermont receipt today. All the best everyone!
USCIS H-1B Premium Processing to Begin April 28
On April 28, 2014, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will begin premium processing for H-1B petitions subject to the fiscal year 2015 cap, including H-1B petitions seeking an exemption from the fiscal year cap for individuals who have earned a U.S. master’s degree or higher. USCIS first announced that we would begin premium processing for H-1B cap cases no later than April 28 in a news release on March 25. USCIS provides premium processing service for certain employment-based petitions and guarantees a 15-calendar-day processing time.
http://www.uscis.gov/news/uscis-h-1b-premium-processing-begin-april-28
Is there anyone still waiting for premium processing, masters quota vermont center. Please post.
Hi There
Could you please tell me any one. I am going with premium process but I did not get any Email from my employee. I little bit scared about that
Has the receipts started coming for RQ/RP?
same here. I havent noticed any till now in this forum. Which means it hasnt started.
I got ittttttttt… its non AD – RP…
On April 10, 2014, we received this I129 PETITION FOR A NONIMMIGRANT WORKER, and mailed you a notice describing how we will process your case. Please follow any instructions on this notice. You will be notified by mail when a decision is made, or if the office needs something from you. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or contact our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
I am in regular process Master ,
Havent recieved any news? Do you know how long it generally take
Do they send email or regular mail?
I applied in CA center
Has anyone with non PP revived a intimation yet?
Got receipt number for non AD/ PP / Vermont …
I also received confirmation today. Premium – Masters quota.
Thanks to everybody.
Congrat’s to once who got receipts. Does anyone from CSC/PP/AD got any receipts ?
What is your status. Mine is still acceptance. I got the e-mail last Friday
What are the chances of getting through the Lottery, if applied for H4 to H1 cos?
172000 + 15000 (from masters who were not picked up in their lottery assuming 35000 applications recieved) / 65000 – 5000 (some specific countriess) ) = 3.11 ..
which means if one in four people will get in lottery… Someone could correct me if I am wrong in any figures…
one in three ..
Its roughly 50% chance, 0.95:2 ratio. Do the math!
RG/AD with PP only will get all the receipts in this year Lottery, no scope for the ones without PP, right?
Who told you this? LOL
Non PP Case will get the receipt as well if their case get picked up in Lottery..
Just they will need to wait longer than the PP folks… 🙂
Wish USCIS had released about the total no of petitions sent till date in PP/Reg , PP/adv and non PP reg and non pp /adv.No where there is clear picture abt the exact quantities of ppl who made it till now.
This way we have to keep our hopes alive till May,June ,July,August or Sept :(..
And this will affect in my future planning too..
Are cases with non-PP/non-AD/VT/CA getting reciept numbers through Post?
just read on another blog, someone got non AD PP receipt via regular mail
Thanks!!! When can we expect to recieve receipts for Non-AD/RP from VT, by what date?
Hi All,
I just want to update you that my non-ad petition/PP/California center has been selected in lottery and i got the receipt number from my employer today.
Thanks you all!!!!!
Mr. Gupta
Could you share which company has filed the petition.
Sorry, I cannot disclose my personel information.
What is your status. Mine is still acceptance. I got it last Friday. Please check. Thanks!
Does anybody know what is the applicant / acceptance ratio for undergrads OPT?
Just received notice that I made it through the lottery!
Premium processing, undergrad. So happy 🙂
Will all the receipt numbers for PP/RP be sent before 28th April 2014?
Name Satheesh
Nationality India
PetitionType New
Center California Service Center-WAC
Filing Date Apr 2nd, 2014
Status Picked in Lottery -Waiting for Case Number
Decision Date N/A
Processing Time 18 days
Processing Type New
Quota Regular
Additional Info FY 2015 Quota . Filed thorough a large MNC
H1B Visa Applying experience:
Created At: 2014-04-19 07:51:09
Updated At: 2014-04-20 02:48:10
Hi Giridhar,
Can you please let me whose details is this and where you got these info..
I am with same name but Vermont..RP/Normal CAP
satheeshkn,
I think he is posting this info from H-1B tracker site on this blog.
Everyone can add their cases on the blog to track it. There are also some statistics available to see how many are pending, approved, waiting for lottery result etc.
Applied under Non-AD/RP/VT, still waiting for receipt numbers, when will RP receipts start cioming any idea?
One more question, even though I know this isn’t recommended (but I’m getting so anxious) – What should your SEVIS record say if you actually have been selected in the lottery?
Basically, is it the date that changes or is it the payment status or the expiration date or.. what? (I’m checking online)
I have a question. Say 1000 applications that were initially selected turn out to be fraudulent or missing information in any way, and therefore get rejected in the interview process. Do these 1000 H1Bs go to waste or do they pick up 1000 of the lottery rejected applications? Just curious.
If 1000 selected petitions were rejected for a valid reason, they will pick another 1000 from the wait-list. Simply put, 1000 H1B’s won’t be wasted.
However, if 1000 H1B USCIS approved cases were rejected during visa stamping (outside the US) process at various consulates, due to valid reasons, then those 1000 H1B’s are considered un-used. Simply put, bad luck for those not selected by the lottery.
Others: If I am wrong, do correct me.
Cim,
usgrad is correct. Based on historical data, they select extra petitions to make-up for the withdrawn/rejected/denied petitions.
Great. Thanks very much for the reply. This wait list that was mentioned, will you be notified if you’re on it or are ALL non-selected applications automatically on the wait list (for if any selected applications get rejected)?
Cim,
The wait-listed candidates (shortlisted as part of the conducted lottery) are notified separately. People who are not selected or not in wait-list will have their packages returned.
Thanks!
Hi surabh,
When applicants come to know the lottery results? Lottery is already over by 10th.
Saurabh,
By when we will come to know our application is not selected in lottery?
Bhairav,
Non-selected folks should start receiving their petitions back mid-May onwards.