Predict H1B visa 2012 Lottery by USCIS ? Past Data Analysis ?

In H1B Visa News by Kumar6 Comments

H1B visa petitions acceptance date for fiscal year 2012 is right around the corner as mentioned in USCIS H1B acceptance press release …some of you might be wondering with questions like

  • Will there be lottery for H1B visa FY 2012 quota ?
  • Can we predict if there would be lottery for H1B visa 2012 ?
  • What process would USCIS follow, if there is a lottery ?
  • What does past H1B filing data suggest ?

Many more questions, let us try to address few of these questions by using  past data.

H1B visa petitions cap reach dates Vs. Lottery ?

If you look at the below graph plotted for H1B cap reach dates by fiscal year, you get a fair idea of the relationship between recession and the H1B lottery…H1B visa 2012 cap reach dates Statistics PredictionAs mentioned in article H1B cap reach dates & Macro Economic Cycles, we are in expansion phase…based on past data, it seems to me that we may not have H1B lottery for fiscal year 2012….having said that, we may not expect the H1B visa cap to last till January 2012….it might exhaust before that…We will track the data every week and do analysis on economy to predict the cap reach date for fiscal year 2012.
Some of you might wonder, lets say if there is a lottery, How would it work ? Check out : How does H1B visa lottery work ? . Also, if unfortunately, you do not get selected in lottery, you would get a letter from USCIS saying the same… Check out Sample H1B visa Rejection letter for Lottery .

Will there be lottery this year ? What are your thoguhts ?

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Comments ( 6 )

  1. Pavan

    Hi,

    Thanks for the info on this website.

    Will there be a lottery system for H1B FY 2013? Petition has been submitted for this CAP on April 2nd 2012.

    1. administrator
      Saurabh

      Pavan,
      There is no lottery as of now. All petitions received until now are considered to have made through the quota.

      1. George

        kumar;

        What do you think about this year Quota ? My employer filed my LCA on 30th March and still waiting for it to be approved ? Do you think that quota will run out within this week ? I am so worried about it . 🙁

        1. administrator
          Saurabh

          IMO, it will not run out within a week. US job market has picked up speed but it’s still not in the full-throttle mode like 07–08. Just my $0.02.

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