H1B Visa 2024 Lottery Predictions – How Many? Analysis, Results

Despite the recent continuous tech layoffs, America is still the destination for high-skilled workers to pursue their professional careers. Getting an H1B Visa to work in the US is the biggest challenge and uncertainty many international students and professionals face today. The demand for H1B visas continues to soar every year, with over 484,000 H1B Registrations filed in FY 2023 season.

Did you know that we had H1B Lottery starting from Fiscal Year(FY) 2014 and have had it consecutively for the past 10 years until FY 2023? In this article, we will look at the past H1B visa filing trends, various factors that influence the H1B registrations for the FY 2024 season, and how each of these plays a role in the total H1B registrations that will be filed this year. We will predict the total number of registrations that are likely to be filed in the H1B 2024 lottery season.

Update: USCIS received 781K H1B Registrations for FY 2024 Season. Read full details at USCIS got 781K H1B Registrations for FY 2024, Analysis, Metrics

Background: What is H1B Lottery, Why does it happen?

If you are new to the H1B visa process, it can be overwhelming to hear the terms lottery, quota, cap count, requirements, etc. We suggest you read the below two articles to familiarize yourself with the basic jargon and overall process:

• Guide to H1B Visa Process: Lottery to Visa Stamping
• H1B Visa Basics: Requirements, Cap Counts, Lottery, Masters Quota, etc.

What is H1B Lottery? Reason for H1B Lottery

H1B Lottery is a common term used for the “random selection process” that is used by USCIS when they receive more H1B registrations/ applications than the required annual cap of 85,000. There is no H1B lottery ticket or anything as such that you buy 😜. The entire H1B lottery process is electronic and computer-generated. The H1B lottery is conducted on the H1B registration submitted by employers in the H1B Electronic Registration System.

When USCIS receives more than 85,000 H1B registrations, they run the electronic H1B Lottery process to select the registrations, who can file H1B petitions with USCIS. The reason they run a lottery is that they do not have any other process to select registrations and it is written as part of the regulation to conduct the H1B lottery. There were attempts in the past to do a lottery based on H1B Wage Levels, with more priority for higher salary applicants, but it was withdrawn in December 2021.

Now that we all have a background on H1B Lottery, let’s now dive into key factors that influence the lottery numbers for H1B Visa 2024 season

Key Factors that Influence the H1B Registrations, Lottery

Below are some of the key factors that we believe will have a significant impact on the total number of H1B registrations that are filed for the fiscal year(FY) 2024 season.

• Historical H1B Registrations/ Applications filed with USCIS, Trends
• Growth of the US Economy, Job Market situation
• F1 Students in the US: Currently Studying, OPT, STEM OPT
• H4 Visa Holders in the US, H4 EAD processing times changes
• Past H1B Applicants who did not get picked in previous years
• USCIS H1B Petition approval Trends, H1B Visa Stamping Trends
• Low H1B Registration Fee for FY 2024, Future $215
• USCIS issued NOIDs for multiple H1B Registrations Fraud

We will look at each of the above factors below in detail to understand the impact and how it can influence the H1B registration numbers for the lottery.

Historical H1B Registrations/ Applications filed with USCIS, Trend

In the past, we used to analyze, if we would have a lottery or not for H1B filings. Looking at the past H1B Cap reach dates and filing history, it is apparent that we would have H1B Lottery for FY 2024 season. USCIS has conducted the H1B lottery every year since FY 2014 season for the last 10 consecutive years. This year will be no different. Below is a graph that shows the H1B cap reach dates for every year since 2004 and how macroeconomic factors played a factor highlighted in the same.

The second big question is how the H1B applications/ registrations trended in the last 10 years or even before. As you can see in the below graph, for FY 2023, there were 483,927 registrations that were submitted with USCIS and before that for FY 2022, it was 308,613. The trend of the total count of H1B registrations/ prospective applications keeps going up every year. See the below graph that shows the trend of H1B registrations/ applications filed with USCIS.

We expect this year, it is not going to be very different and the total H1B registrations for FY 2024 to be similar or even higher than previous years. We will revisit this and predict the actual count in the later part of the article.

Growth of the US Economy, Job Market situation

On paper, the US GDP growth rate is hovering around 2.7%, while US unemployment is hovering around 3.4%. While the unemployment rate is very low, it is not ideal for the overall US economy due to inflation. It is in a very tricky situation with inflation and job growth not slowing down. Fed has been trying hard to get the inflation down, but it’s not going at the pace they wish they wanted. Below is the graph on US GDP Growth comparing the US Unemployment rate for your comparison and review.

While there have been a lot of tech layoffs, the unemployment rate is still relatively low. It is hard to say how the job market would remain for prospective H1B applicants as the economy is in a tricky spot. Looking at the overall situation, many tech companies may not expand their workforce and this leads to lower demand for H1B workers. Due to this, we may see lower H1B registrations based on this factor.

F1 Students in the US: Currently Studying, OPT, STEM OPT

The number of international students currently in the US on F1 visa status has increased in the past year from -15% to 3.8% based on the OpenDoors Report. The increase in enrollment is due to the removal of travel restrictions after COVID and many applicants’ ability to get US Visa stamping done. See the below screenshot of the F1 students’ data in the US.

The overall number of F1 students working on OPT & STEM OPT continues to be similar to previous years with about 20,000 less than the year before. While this 20,000 reduction will reduce the number of H1B registrations from them, the overall registrations from OPT and STEM OPT applicants will not reduce significantly.

Based on current data, there are about 184K F1 students on OPT and if you factor in STEM OPT students from the previous 3 years, they add up to approximately 600K. As per previous metrics, about 40% of F1 students on OPT are in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics(STEM) Category. If we estimate based on that, we are looking at about 200K to 240K STEM OPT, applicants, who could be applying as part of the FY 2024 season. While not all of them may apply, a good amount of them would likely apply, if they have a job at hand. This will lead to a higher number of H1B registrations filed for the FY 2024 season.

H4 Visa Holders in the US, H4 EAD processing times changes

Many of the H4 Visa holders, who are living in the US and who do not have H4 EAD, may apply for the H1B lottery for FY 2024. This is no different from previous years, but due to the delays with the labor certification process and tech layoffs, many big companies may not have started the green card process. This puts the H4 spouses in a tough spot with no clear path to get and apply for H4 EAD. Their only option to start working is to get an H1B visa. As they are already in the US, they can apply for a job and find an employer to sponsor on their behalf. This will increase the H1B filings from H4 holders.

In terms of H4 EAD holders, there is a lot of positive news around processing times. Since Jan 25, 2023, H4 and H4 EAD filed together with H1B will be adjudicated together for both premium and regular. In the past, there were many delays with H4 and H4 EAD processed separately. This change is based on a settlement by USCIS as they lost a lawsuit. This change encourages H4 EAD holders not to see the H1B path and this factor reduces the H1B registrations for FY 2024 from them. We may also see H4 EAD premium processing implemented in the upcoming months, latest by FY 2025.

Past H1B Applicants who did not get picked in previous years

Most of the previous applicants, who applied in previous years may return this year and apply for H1B again. We have seen many try four to five times as well. Going by that trend, we may see many users who applied in previous years go for it again this year.

In the past, it was a lot of hassle to file an H1B petition and there were a lot of costs involved for employers upfront. But, since USCIS introduced the H1B registration Online System, it costs only $10 cost upfront and is very easy. This will increase the H1B registration filings for the FY 2024 Season.  

USCIS H1B Petition approval Trends, H1B Visa Stamping Trends

In the past during the Trump administration, it was a big hassle for employers with USCIS not approving and issuing too many RFEs and denying petitions. But, since the Biden administration has taken office, the H1B denial rates are down to single digits and at 2% for FY 2022. These are very encouraging for employers to file H1B registrations and petitions without hassle. Below are the H1B Denial rates history based on the NFAP Report from February 2023.

Also, if you look at the H1B Visa Stamping Approval rates at US Consulates and Embassies around the world, they look very good as well. Getting successful H1B visa stamping is critical for employers as they are unsure if the employee would arrive in the US as planned. See the below screenshot that illustrates the trend.

Both of these are positive factors and employers are encouraged to file more H1B registrations for FY 2024, and this can increase the overall count for this year.

Low H1B Registration Fee for FY 2024, Future $215

The current H1B registration fee is $10 USD. This is relatively very low and very encouraging for any employer to file the H1B registration without worrying about the cost. But, USCIS has a regulation in the federal register that proposes the H1B Registration fee to increase from $10 to $215. Currently, the regulation is open to the public for comments. If it goes as planned for USCIS, the H1B registration fee will go up to $215 for FY 2025 season.

The current low fee is a factor that increases the total registrations for FY 2024 season as there is little to no overhead for employers. In the future, this may change due to the fee increase.

USCIS issued NOIDs for multiple H1B Registrations Fraud

USCIS added some additional text last year on their  USCIS H1B Registration Page that talks about attestation for all the H1B Registrations. After the H1B registration period, during the H1B petition adjudication phased, USCIS did implement what they mentioned on the registration page. They used various mechanisms to detect the fraud done by IT Body shops that filed multiple H1B registrations. They issued a Notice of Intent to Deny(NOID) for many such H1B FY 2023 petitions.

USCIS cracking down on multiple H1B registration submission fraud by working with multiple IT body shops will definitely prevent some abuse this year. But, it is hard to say if this will stop many of these firms from completely stopping. Overall, these actions will reduce some of the H1B registrations filed for FY 2024.

Now that we looked at all the factors, let’s quickly summarize

H1B Visa 2024 Lottery Predictions – How many registrations?

Based on the above factors, here is the summary on how each of the factors would influence

• Historical H1B Registrations filed with USCIS, Trends -> Definite H1B Lottery
• Growth of the US Economy, Job Market situation ->Neutral, Less H1B Registrations
• F1 Students in the US: Currently Studying, OPT, STEM OPT -> More H1B Registrations
• H4 Visa Holders in the US, H4 EAD processing times changes -> More H1B Registrations
• Past H1B Applicants who did not get picked in previous years -> More H1B Registrations
• USCIS H1B Petition approval Trends, H1B Visa Stamping Trends -> More H1B Registrations
• Low H1B Registration Fee for FY 2024, Future $215 -> More H1B Registrations
• USCIS issued NOIDs for multiple H1B Registrations Fraud -> Less H1B Registrations

If we look at the overall pulse, based on the above factors, it points to having more H1B registrations to be submitted for FY 2024. Though there are many tech layoffs and the economy is limping with inflation, the demand for H1B does not seem to go down based on our analysis.

Last year was a blowout with the highest number of H1B registrations ever filed in the history of the H1B program. Now, the million-dollar question, is how many H1B registrations would be filed for the FY 2024 season? This year, we expect a similar trend as last year and the overall registrations may not reduce much. We predict that we may see anywhere from 550,000 to 600,000 H1B Registrations would likely be submitted for FY 2024 season.

Update: USCIS received 781K H1B Registrations for FY 2024 Season. Read full details at USCIS got 781K H1B Registrations for FY 2024, Analysis, Metrics

H1B 2024 Registration Lottery Results, Timeline

Below are the timelines for the H1B Registration and Lottery results.

• H1B Registration Start Date: March 1st, 2023. 12 Noon EST
• H1B Registration End Date: March 17th, 2023.  Noon EST
• H1B Lottery Results: Any time after March 25^th, but before March 31^st, 2023.
• H1B Petition Filing Start Dates: April 1^st, 2023.
• H1B Petition Filings End Dates: June 30^th, 2023.

Will there be H1B Lottery Second Round for FY 2024 Season?

In general, in the past, USCIS used to select about 13% to 15% more H1B filings, before the H1B registration process and also similar percentages in the first year of the H1B registration process. Due to the new system, in the first year or two USCIS did not estimate well and for FY 2022 season, they had three rounds of the H1B Lottery.

As USCIS learned from their experiences, for FY 2023, they ended up selecting 50% more H1B registrations than the actual numerical cap of 85,000. They selected 127,600 H1B registrations for FY 2023 season in the first round itself and there was never a need for them to run the second round or third round of the H1B lottery last year.

This year also, it is likely that USCIS may select H1B registrations on similar lines as FY 2023 with about 50% more than the annual cap count. So, if they go by that principle, we may not have a second or third-round H1B lottery. We need to wait and see, at this point, we cannot say for sure.

What do you think of the H1B Lottery predictions for FY 2024 Season? Share your insights and thoughts in the comments section below.