There is a lot of curiosity about the cap count updates as there were New H1B visa 2011 rules passed in earlier this year and the hopes of recovering economy. I did a plot of 2010 cap count updates for helping you all predict about lottery for 2011 quota.
In all reality, it has only been 4 days since April 1st and there was NO official cap count update press release by USCIS until now. Last year the press release was done on April 8th of 2009 for FY 2010 visa cap. So, we can expect an update may be on April 8th of 2010 for this year. In the mean while, here is something to analyze and do your own predictions based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USA.
US GDP and H1B visa quota analysis :
I am not an economist to give you a lecture on economy. Simply, one of the things GDP says is how much the people are spending in a country. Here is the logic, if people are spending more then companies are getting more money, if companies are getting more money, they try to spend more to meet demand and hire people for increase in sales…what it means for us is, it create Jobs…The more jobs are created, the more options for need of skilled labor, which is H1B visa sponsorships for internationals. Just look at the graph, there has been positive GDP growth in last year. It helps us to actively guess that, there will be more jobs, it means there will be more H1Bs petitions filing possible…a big catch is, we have the new rules that were passed this year that may create few complications, I will leave you all to guess the result. Personally, it is a mixed reaction and from job demand perspective, H1B filings should increase, but from new visa guidelines perspective, it is discouraging for employers with more restrictions…so it may drop… The crux of issue, which one outweighs the other wins and it will decide how soon the cap will be filled for H1B FY 2011 cap !
GDP Growth rate trend in US from 2006 – 2009
Reference : US Department of Commerce