The H1B Visa continues to be one of the most sought-after visas among international students and professionals. Despite the change in the H1B Lottery selection process during the H1B Fiscal Year(FY) 2025 season, USCIS still received a whopping 480K H1B registrations.
While the number of people applying with multiple job offers to game the old lottery system has reduced with the change in the lottery process, the demand for H1B visas continues to rise.
As the new H1B season starts, we review the historical data from previous years’ H1B lottery data, jobs data in the US, how the US Economy is performing, International students in the US, OPT students, and other common factors that can impact the H1B registrations and make H1B Fiscal Year 2026 lottery predictions.
If you are new to the H1B process, we recommend reading the article H1B Visa Basics: Requirements, Cap Counts, Lottery, Masters Quota, etc. to understand the jargon and basics around the H1B program.
Key factors that influence the H1B filings by employers
Before we can predict anything, we need to understand the factors that influence the outcome. In the context of H1B filings for the fiscal year(FY) 2026, we believe the key factors influencing the H1B filings or registration submissions by employers are as follows:
- Historical H1B Registrations/ Applications filing trends
- How well the US Economy is doing? How is the job market?
- Number of F1 Students in the US either Studying or working on OPT, STEM OPT.
- H4 Visa holders’ situation with uncertainty around H4 EAD, PERM Delays.
- Past applicants who were not selected in previous H1B Lottery
- New Trump Administration Policies around Immigration.
‼️ Update: As of March 27th, 2025, H1B 2026 Lottery results have started to come in. USCIS has not made any announcement yet. We do not know exact number of H1B registrations submitted yet. You can read H1B 2026 Lottery Results, Sample Selection Notice for updates.
Let’s look at each of these factors in detail in the following sections.
Historical H1B Registrations/ Applications filing trends
Nothing speaks better than historical data. It reflects past demand and helps us understand trends and where things are headed. As we look at the historical H1B filings data with USCIS, we notice that USCIS conducted the H1B lottery for the last 12 consecutive years starting from FY 2014. You can read H1B Visa Filings by Year – History, Cap Reach Dates for more info.
The consecutive H1B lottery every year for over a decade confirms that the demand continues to be there year after year. We can expect the same for FY 2026, and we will likely have H1B lottery.
The graph below shows the H1B cap reach dates for every year since 2004, with relevant macroeconomic events highlighted in the same. The expected lottery for FY 2026 is also indicated.
As we expect to have a lottery for the FY 2026 season, the next thing everyone wants to understand is how much can be the total demand based on the historical data. Last year for FY 2025 season, USCIS received 480K registrations, the year before for FY 2024, they received 780K registrations and before that for FY 2023, it was around 483K and so on.
The below graph indicates the total number of H1B registrations/ filings with USCIS from FY 2004. The drop of registrations from FY 2025 can be attributed to the change in lottery selection process.
Based on the historical data, we can expect the H1B registrations to be around the same number or maybe slightly less due to other factors. We will indicate an approximate count and give a number at the end of the article. Let’s look at other factors in the next sections.
If you are looking for a video summary of this article, you can watch it on YouTube at: H1B Lottery Predictions for FY 2026 Video
How well the US Economy is doing? How is the job market?
The most recent Q4 2024 US GDP growth rate is 2.3% compared to previous years Q4 2023 US GDP, it was 3.2%. The slight drop in the GDP growth rate indicates a slowing of economic activities that starts with reduced consumer spending, ultimately impacting the job market and increasing unemployment. This can also impact the high-skilled H1B jobs due to the slowing down the overall US economy.
In terms of the unemployment rate, the latest February 2025 unemployment rate stands at 4.1% compared to the previous year’s February 2024 unemployment standing at 3.9%. The low unemployment rate does not directly indicate there is good demand for H1B workers.
The tech hiring has slowed in the last couple of years. As per FY 2024 LCA data, there was just about 2% more H1B LCAs filed, indicating a growth of only 2% H1B jobs. The actual numbers are far from FY 2022 levels, and there is a lot of catch-up to do. This status of Tech jobs and the US Job market does not indicate high demand for H1B workers, and this factor has a negative effect on the total H1B registrations that will be filed for the FY 2026 season.
See the below chart from TradingEconomics that shows the overall trend.
Number of F1 Students in the US – Studying or working on OPT, STEM OPT.
As we review the International Students’ data on F1 Visa and OPT provided by the OpenDoors Report for the year 2024, we can see that the international student’s enrollment was up by 6.6%, and the total number of students on OPT has significantly gone up compared to previous years and stands at 242,782. The typical path for most of these 242K students on OPT is to apply for H1B to work in the US, unless they choose to go back to their home country or pursue PhD.
If we see the total number of students from 2022/2023, they were about 858K international students, of which around 460K were graduate students, who would be set to graduate this year. If we add up this 460K to the OPT Students number, we get to close to 700K. A good number of these 700K students may be considering applying H1B visa to work in the US. This increases the demand for H1B visas from F1 students side and we may see more F1 students applying this year for H1Bs during the FY 2026 season.
Below is the screenshot of the F1 and OPT students data from the OpenDoors 2024 Report.
H4 Visa holders’ situation with uncertainty around H4 EAD, PERM Delays
Since the Trump Administration took office for the second term in January 2025, there is a sense of uncertainty among H4 visa holders if the Trump Administration may try to remove H4 EAD by proposing a regulation.
As you all know, not everyone on H4 Visa can work, only some who meet the requirements can apply for H4 EAD to work in the US. The PERM processing delays continue to impact many of the H4 visa holders as they are dependent on this for their next steps to get an EAD.Also, with the tech jobs situation, not many companies are willing to start the green card process immediately.
Considering all these, many of the H4 visa holders may try to get a job and seek H1B for the upcoming H1B season, this increase the total filings for FY 2026 season.
Past applicants who were not selected in previous H1B Lottery
Thousands of students spend a lot of money and time studying in the US, and their goal is to work in the US and gain experience at least for few years. Many are not willing to give up hope just with one try. Also, with STEM OPT, many of the F1 Students who are still in the US and working will urge their employers to apply for H1B again. This is the same case with professionals outside of the US aspiring to work in the US.
Since the introduction of the H1B Registration Process and Online system to submit, it is easy for employers to submit a registration. This ease of applying and a minimal cost of $215 will encourage employers to apply for H1B for their employees who were not selected in the past. This factor will have a bigger impact, and many more past applicants may apply for the FY 2026 season.
New Trump Administration Policies around Immigration
The Trump Administration took office in January 2025. Since they took office, they have been very swift in putting out many executive orders around immigration and removing many of the Biden-related immigration policies and memos.
In the context of the H1B visa program, they have been very critical about it and implemented many policies in their first term, adding more complexities for employers to comply. Considering the past history of Trump Administration 1.0 , many IT body shops kind of companies may not be willing to take a chance and apply for H1B. This will have a negative effect and we may see a drop in the H1B Registrations due to this for FY 2026 season.
Let’s summarize all the above factors now,
H1B Visa 2026 Lottery Predictions: How many registrations?
Based on the above factors, below is the summary of how each of the factors would influence
- Historical H1B Registrations/ Applications filing trends –> Definite H1B Lottery
- US Economy, US job market –> Neutral factor, Less H1B Registrations
- Number of F1 Students in the US, OPT, STEM OPT –> More H1B Registrations
- H4 Visa holders with H4 EAD uncertainty, PERM Delays –> More H1B Registrations
- Past applicants who were not selected in previous H1B Lottery –> More H1B Registrations
- New Trump Administration Policies around Immigration –> Less H1B Registrations
Below is the screenshot of the H1B filings data from FY 2021 until FY 2025. If we look at the data for FY 2025, most of the multiple registrations related to fraud was eliminated due to changes in the H1B lottery process. So, FY 2025 numbers give us a good baseline to start with to predict the FY 2026 lottery numbers.
Considering all the above factors and the overall spike in demand, we predict anywhere from 460,000 to 520,000 H1B Registrations could be filed during the H1B FY 2026 season.
H1B 2025 Registration Lottery Results, Timeline
Below are the timelines for the H1B Registration and Lottery results.
- H1B Registration Start Date: March 7th, 2025, Noon EST
- H1B Registration End Date: March 24th, 2025, Noon EST
- H1B Lottery Results Date: Any time from March 24th, 2025, but before March 31st, 2025.
- H1B Petition Filing Start Date for Initial Selected Applicants: April 1st, 2025.
- H1B Petition Filings End Date or Initial Selected Applicants: June 30th, 2025
As an applicant, you cannot check H1B Registration Lottery status online, you need to work with your employer to get the status. You can read How to Check H1B Lottery Results.
What are your thoughts on the H1B Lottery predictions for the FY 2026 Season? Add your comments and predictions in the comments section below.
You may also read below.
FY 2026 H-1B Initial Registration Selection Process Completed
Hi, could you please respond with the link for the H1B Lottery Telegram group? Thanks!
PP,
You can join using https://t.me/joinchat/JdJoSRcUuUma-UHZN3NTmg
It says expired link
I have just checked it, works https://t.me/joinchat/JdJoSRcUuUma-UHZN3NTmg
Still says “expired”. I was in the group for the last 2 years, and the group suddenly dissapeared, and now I can’t enter. I don’t know why…I haven’t have any issues with anybody, or shared anything innapropiate 🙁
*haven’t had
The reason why the link doesn’t work is because I’ve been banned, and I don’t know why. I really like the group. I’ve been using it for my last two attempts. This is my third, I haven’t spammed, had any problem with anyone, or anything I can think of as a reason for being banned. Can you please help?
PP, share your telegram id or message the admin, will be able to add.
Cognizant has withdrawn many H1B nominations in the last minute with only 6 days left. What a game play by company. Has anyone received mail that their H1B nomination is withdrawn?
Manoj,
Sorry to hear…Maybe due to the Trump administration and IT jobs in US, they may have taken the call…
This year.. im my frnds circle, many are not getting the chance to apply for H1b.. even if they are in Full time Roles (having salaries in the range from 75k-90k/annum) as their companies are not willing to sponsor. i expect the number of applications to be around 200-250k. Not more than this. As also many candidates from India are hesitant to apply due to increase in Application Fee (INR 16000 appx) + situation of IT jobs in USA.
Thank you for the data collected and forecast. I suggest no more 400k petitioners this year.
What about fraud they can use after rules change last year? Somebody mentioned it can be done with passport numbers manipulation. Hope this is only rumors
Romio,
Let’s see. I am not sure, how they would do that. Date of Birth and Passport number are closely tied. If multiple of those are getting selected, then it can be trouble for the person and no one would take chance, it will cause them more damage than good.
H1Bvisa program is for the fraud and people doing fake exp. Theres no value for people with real skills and hands on experience. This is useless lottery process is more corrupt than the system itself
Vasu,
Well, there are always bad actors in any program/system. Does not mean the program is bad, it has made a significant contribution to the US economy and has changed many peoples lives. The lottery process is not the best way to pick a deserving applicant, but it is what it is as it is stipulated by DHS… Usually IT body shops are the ones that engage in such malpractices, stay away from them…
Yes 100% I agree. Genuine People with Original Exp and had valid full time job are not getting in the lottery selected. Who does not have job are easily getting selected and of no use they are filing.
True, I’ve been trying since 2021 but still haven’t been selected, despite being 100% skilled and eligible, and having a job.