Update : NO Lottery for FY 2011. Check H1B visa FY 2011 Cap Count updates page for Current cap count and Analysis
As we are getting closer to the H1B filing date, April 1st 2010, for 2011 quota, something that everyone is eager to know is, what would be the reaction by people and employers with recession and New H1B 2011 rules and also the H1B Port of Entry sent back in January 2010 issues that have been creating a buzz all over… I have done a preliminary analysis before as in this article: H1-B Visa Petitions Cap reached dates by Year from 2000 to 2010. Recession impact and Trend Analysis Plot from 2000 – 2010 for 2011 decision.
Now, we are curious to see how many H1B visa petitions will be filed in first week or first month, so our goal is to predict the count on a weekly or fortnight basis. In fact, USCIS does a weekly or fortnight update of the H1B cap count, this helps us !
One of the best ways to predict 2011 H1B petitions lottery and filing dates and count of H1B applications, is to study the previous years i.e 2010 cap count updates.
H1B visa count reach data collection FY 2010 Cap for Lottery Prediction :
Honestly, I had a hard time getting hold of weekly cap counts, as all the news releases from USCIS news Updates section has only few H1B update press releases and USCIS used to update on a page at www.uscis.gov/h-1b_count. Luckily, American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) has all of those H1B Count pages of USCIS snapshots filed and saved as PDF. They have a list of all the count releases on a weekly basis. I got all my data from there after April 18th 2009 Press releases from USCIS. You may check all the count updates and press releases at AILA USCIS FY 2010 Cap Reach dates . Thanks to AILA for keeping a record of the USCIS cap count updates.
Trend of 2010 H1B visa applications count dates :
Based on the trend you can see how it got filled and the cap count was very flat for a long period of time due to the recession impact and towards the end of year, the count started filling up quickly. It will be interesting to see how the H1B filing will be with the new H1B Memorandum that was released with guidelines for Employer Employee Relationship. What do you all think based on the data analysis of Cap count updates of 2010 below? Do you think there will be h1b visa lottery for 2011 quota ?
Table listing the H1B petition count updates of FY 2010
H1B Petition received count press released by USCIS
H1B Count of regular petitions received
|April 8, 2009 USCIS Update||USCIS Still Accepting H1B|
|April 20, 2009 USCIS Update||44,000|
|April 27, 2009 USCIS Update||45,000|
|May 4 , 2009 USCIS Update||45,000|
|May 11, 2009 USCIS Update||45,000|
|May 18, 2009 USCIS Update||45,500|
|May 22, 2009||45,700|
|May 29, 2009||45,800|
|June 5, 2009||44,400|
|June 12, 2009||44,500|
|June 19, 2009||44,500|
|June 26, 2009||44,800|
|July 3, 2009||45,000|
|September 18, 2009||46,000|
|September 25, 2009||46,700|
|November 6, 2009||54,700|
Image Credit : http://www.flickr.com/photos/crystaljingsr/3914729343/