H1B Visa 2018 Lottery Predictions – Data Analysis, Trump Impact, US Economy

In H1B Visa News by Kumar136 Comments

It is again that time of the year, where it give us an opportunity to analyze and predict the H1B Visa Lottery for FY 2018…unbelievable, this is our 8th year J and we have been successful in predicting H1B trends every year, since our first H1B FY 2011 Predictions.  Our approach to H1B predictions, which started in 2010, has always been driven by analysis of historical data, macro-economic conditions, geopolitical situation and immigration policies.

In the previous years, we used to debate on whether there would be H1B lottery or not, but in the past few years, lottery or random selection is kind of taken for granted, now it is about, how many H1B Petitions can we expect, that’s the big question on the table…As always, we believe in data and current conditions in various aspects. Below are the key factors that will influence the overall H1B filings for this fiscal year.

  • H1B Cap reach Dates Historical Trends – Lottery or Not ?
  • US Economy Performance – Unemployment, GDP Growth
  • H1B Fee changes in last couple of years
  • New Trump Administration – Geopolitical changes, Immigration Agenda
  • Missed Lottery Applicants from FY 2017, 2016, etc. previous years
  • 24 Month OPT Rules, H4 EAD Rule.
  • New F1 Students Graduating, Current OPT Students

Let’s look at each of the above aspects in detail to analyze their impact on 2018 H1B lottery numbers.
 H1B Cap Reach Dates Trend – Lottery – Historical Data Analysis
It can be taken for granted that we will have lottery. No need to do the guess work anymore. So, we will have lottery for H1B Visa 2018.  Last year was record with highest of 236,000 H1B petitions for FY 2017.The previous years FY 2016 had 233,000, FY 2015 was 172,500. Logically, even if  half of the people, who were not picked in lottery last year file this year, we would have lottery. Below is the prediction portrayed in a nice graph. Also, check out History of H1B Cap reach dates 1999-2018.

H1B Visa 2018 Lottery Predictions Analysis

US Economy Performance – Unemployment, GDP Growth :
Before Trump administration took office, some feared that the economy might turn bad due to “America first” agenda and stock market might go down…but nothing happened…on the contrary, everything is doing fantastic from economy perspective and stock market is all time high. The unemployment is all time low at 4.7%  ( lower than last year’s 4.9%) and forecasted to be around that for remainder of the 2017, check below graph. To put things in perspective, the unemployment was about 8% during FY 2014 ad we ended up in H1B Lottery that year. US GDP growth rate is quite decent forecasted to be around 2% for remainder of the year. GDP growth does not look great, but not bad. Overall, the demand for high skilled H1B workers would be high as the unemployment rate is quite low. This adds up to having more H1B petitions filed for FY 2018.
US GDP and Unemployment Growth Rate

H1B Fee changes of  $4000 fee and Application Fee raise 2016 :   In December 2015, Omnibus Bill passed raised H1B fee by $4000 for certain employers with over 50 employees and 50% of their employers are non-immigrant workers, which is valid till 2025. The fact of life is that, despite the fee increase, it had no impact in FY 2017 H1B season and we had the highest number of H1B petitions filed last year. The only impact of this would be for some Indian MNCs like Wipro, Infosys, TCS, Cognizant, etc., who are in the model of off-shore.   Also, the base filing fee was $325 and it went up to $460 from December 23, 2016.  The fee increase is very meagre and it should not impact the H1B filings.  Overall, the fee increases in 2015 and 2016 will NOT have major impact on the filings. It may slightly reduce the filings from Indian MNCs and IT Body shops that are in offshore model, but should not have any impact from large firms like Microsoft, Google, Facebook, etc. You may check our H1B Sponsors Database to review filings.

New Trump Administration – Geopolitical Issues, Immigration Policies – H1B Impact  :  Since President Trump has taken office, there has been so many rumors, confusions based on leaked memos and H1B 130K wage limit , etc. and media confusing everyone. Overall, Trump administration’s immigration agenda is to protect American Workers Jobs and make sure foreigners are not replacing Americans’ jobs. We have at least 4 H1B Bills introduced in House and Senate , that talk about changing H1B and L1 regulations, but none of them have even passed in either House or Senate. Also, the geopolitical situation with ban for certain nationals, and extra scrutiny for foreigners at US Port of Entry is creating so much chaos in people’s lives and corporate world.  The fact of life is that none of the H1B rules and policies are passed and do not apply for FY 2018. It is safe to say that the speculations may not have any impact on the H1B filings. On the contrary, I expect this uncertainty would increase the H1B petitions because of anticipation of policies like reduction in H1B quota in future and more tighter measures going forward from FY 2019.

 Missed Lottery Applicants from FY 2017, 2016, etc. previous years:  This may sound trivial, but the odds of someone applying for H1B visa, if they have missed a chance in previous years is quite high.  We hear on the blog many people applying for H1B at least two to three times, if they were not picked in previous year’s H1B lottery. To put numbers in perspective, in FY 2017, there were 236,000 H1B petitions, for FY 2016, there were about 233,000 H1B petitions, for FY 2015 there were 172,500 applications and for FY 2014, there were about 124,000 applications filed.  If we do simple math in the last 4 years, the total applicants who were not picked in lottery were about 425,500  (236000+ 233000+172500+124000 – 4*85000 ). If even 20% of them apply, we will hit the quota. So, this is a big factor to consider and we believe, this will account for at least 30% of H1B petitions numbers for FY 2018.

New 24 Month OPT Rule, H4 EAD Rule  : The 24 Month STEM OPT Extension rule was effective from May 10, 2016. While this rule may sound great for F1 students by looking at the number “24 months”, the reality is that it is not very lucrative for employers. The amount of overhead the employers have to take for OPT program rules with mentoring and oversight is quite high…This overhead to have someone on OPT for longer period is less attractive for employers and they would rather sponsor H1B for their interested students on OPT…This will account a lot for H1B filings and we expect that it would add about 10% to 15% of the overall H1B filings for FY 2018.  Also, we had H4 Visa EAD rule that became effective from May 2015 and it gave eligibility to about 179,000 H4 visa holders and about 110,000 for 2016 and 2017. Despite these large numbers, still there are good number of H1B spouses who are not eligible for H4 EAD and may try to apply for H1B. It may slightly reduce the filings from previous years, but it will add up to about 5 to 7% in the current FY 2018 filings.

Current F1 Students Graduating, OPT Students :  US has been the destiny for many international students over last couple of decades. The growth was about 7.1% during 2015-16 academic year. A good amount of these students would graduate in 2017 May. But, we also need to also consider students from prior year as well . Overall number of the international students are over 300,000 and over 100,000 students from India alone in Graduate level and OPT. Also, about 46% of these degree holders are from STEM. Most of these students are potentially graduating or looking to work or continue on OPT.  With more overhead for STEM OPT extension, you can expect most of these students would very likely apply for H1B visa. We believe the potential filings from the current students and OPT students is around 20% of the overall H1B numbers.
OPT Students F1 Students H1B Visa 2018 Stats
Summary – Lottery Predictions for H1B visa 2018 Quota :
The key takeaway after reviewing various aspects that influence the number of H1B petitions is that despite new President Trump Administration in US, the overall stats that correspond to economy, current students, OPT holders, H1B lottery missed applicants,  H4 visa holders, etc. do not favor any significant drop in the H1B filings. Indian outsourcing MNCs and IT Body shop consulting companies may file slightly less number of petitions this year, but I feel that the it would have less impact in overall filings. There is tremendous demand for high skilled technical workers with booming economy and low unemployment rate in US…Also, with new Donald Trump administration in office, it is possible that big employers like Microsoft, Google, Facebook in US may file more H1Bs this year as the future of H1B program looks unclear with many speculations and bills around wage increases, quota cap reduction, etc.. Now, the prediction in terms of number of H1B petitions, we do not see any major slowdown in the H1B filings this year and we could anticipate anywhere from 210,000 to 240,000 H1B petitions for FY 2018.

Update : H1B Visa 2018 Cap was reached on April 7th and H1B Lottery was conducted on April 11th. USCIS received 199,000 H1B Petitions for H1B Fiscal year 2018 quota. Check out article : H1B 2018 Cap Reached – 199K Petitions Filed  

What do you think ? What are your H1B Predictions for FY 2018 ?
References :

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Comments ( 136 )

  1. Phani

    I have been approached by Connvertex Technologies Inc for filing H1B for 2018.
    Am working for CTS currently and CTS also filed the petition H1B for 2018. Can any one help me about the Connvertex and chances of getting VISA.

    1. Shree

      USCIS is not accepting H1B visa applications anymore. As your current employer CTS has already applied for visa, your best chance is to get selected for visa (lottery or any method). If your petition gets approved, you will be eligible to come here not earlier than September 22nd of this year and you can join your company after that. After coming here, you can again reach to Connvertex and make them apply for visa transfer. By that time if USCIS resumes premium processing, LCA and visa transfer process will take around 20 to 25 days.

      Good luck!

      1. Phani

        Thanks shree. Both employers filed the petition. In case if i got both.. Then which would be the best??. Here i have an agreement with connvertex for 2 years if visa picked. If i want to back out, i need to pay 4 lakhs. Suggestions please.

        1. Shree

          You can select any employer you wish. If you both petitions selected, avoid the one asking for contract, because they make your life hell here if you come here on contract.

          As for contract for applying for visa, it is illegal to say so and you can complain to USCIS (there is no contact formed, until you take up the job. Also consult an attorney). It is illegal for employers to take money from candidate for visa, or creating a contract to bind him. But if you already started working here, you’ll have to follow the contract terms.
          Check with law firms

  2. Anirudh

    Kumar & Saurabh

    Thanks for the wonderful work you guys are doing for the community. Since I had less time during the week day, I’m posting my analysis during this weekend !

    Coming to the point that I would like to seek comments from the folks who are analysing these stuffs on regular basis.

    I understand all the LCA’s needs to be obtained at least by last week of March to have the H1B Petition submitted. Having said that, I have two data to compare against. Data taken on Mar 27th and Apr 8th.

    I assume that the employers would not want to loose out days by having the start data earlier than July’2017.

    Taken on Mar27th
    Start Date LCA Count
    01-sep-2017-30-sep-2017 87766
    01-aug-2017-30-aug-2017 93683
    01-Jul-2017-31-Jul-2017 30797
    Total 212246

    Taken on Apr 8th
    Start Date LCA Count
    01-sep-2017-30-sep-2017 120955
    01-aug-2017-30-aug-2017 102057
    01-Jul-2017-31-Jul-2017 33257
    Total 256269

    Data Source:- https://lcr-pjr.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspAdvCertSearch

    With this assume, we would definitely have more than 65,000 petitions. My personal guess is that at least 80% of 212246 would be the number for this year. I would say approx. of 1,70,000.

    LCA Count for Big Companies(Wipro,Infosys,Tech Mahindra, CTS, HCL) is very less compared to last year.

    If uscis calls for Lottery for initial sort list of petition, then 1 of 3 application is lucky quotient that one could expect.

    Contradictory Numbers which is not clear for me.
    When I do the same search for a period from Jul’2017 – Sep’2017[Single Search], I get a total of ”224,339”

    1. Kan

      Ohh..its 1:3.. So when can we expect lottery?. this month or May?.. As per other websites news..it seems it will be fast this year!!!??

  3. Kan

    It seems as per new release from USCIS, quota has been reached and its closed further processing. Is that indicates no lottery this year????!!!

    1. Sathish Kumar

      USCIS has released statement that quota has been reached, did they mention anywhere that they won’t accept anymore petitions?

  4. Srikanth

    So any updates on no of applications filed till now. Am waiting for the count. for me like 2 employers filed the petition.

    1. Shree

      I don’t think this year USCIS will declare the quota filled soon, as they don’t owe anything to petitioners unlike last year when there as 15 days response time for premium processing.

      This year most likely, they will review all the LCAs before approving and most applications filed by consulting firms with generic job title like “computer programmer” is going to be rejected. Only those genuine applications filed by either the companies offering the job or the consultancies with legitimate client information will be approved.

      As for you, if the employers are consultancies (body shops) finding jobs for you, the hope is on the edge. In a giant consulting firm like TCS, if you have enough number of experience in the same firm for longer time and the company is applying for a reputed client there is more chance of approval, otherwise it could be very difficult.

  5. K

    USCIS news release this morning:

    https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/putting-american-workers-first-uscis-announces-further-measures-detect-h-1b-visa-fraud-and-abuse

    This is exactly what I had written a couple of weeks ago. If you are filing with a desi consultancy that will place you at a client site after faking interviews / experience expect more scrutiny on your h1b file.

    1. Shree

      It is a good news and many fraud consultancies will be exposed. Also all the fake degree and experience holders too I guess

      1. K

        Yes. They have also set up a phone and email hotline to report abuse. This is something that has been in place for years, but with the current administration we can expect vigilant inspection and follow up.

        Overall, good policy for the U.S economy. Also good for qualified Indians, as there are enough QUALIFIED indian IT people to fill the quota on their own. Bad news for cheap labor exporting firms and for unqualified people who were relying on the ‘draw of the luck’.

      2. Sri

        @Shree

        I do have a question.
        USCIS mentioned that the Job title “Computer Programmer” is not eligible for H1B visa.
        Does that mean they will scrutinize all the applications before actually sending those them to the lottery?

        1. Shree

          I think “competer programmer” is not a title in any company and body shops simply use this title to obtain LCA and applied for H1B. USCIS requires employers to list specific post rather than general terms as the visa will be issued for a specific post. In order to take down visa fraud, they might be targeting on these categories. This could affect existing H1bs as well as new applications.

          Maybe this year USCIS will track down these applications before processing? That could be the another reason to suspend premium processing.

  6. Amu

    Its 110,000
    Lottery
    As TCS Info Wipro giants have come down heavily from 25000 to may be 5000
    don’t fight
    by 15th April USICS will tweet how many filed and then pray to god

  7. MartDC

    I spoke with Fragomen NYC. The # of H-1B petitions will be way lower this year. They are looking at 35-40% chance to get it this year under Regular Cap. I hope that helps..

      1. Shree

        Apparently Fragomen is just another application filer. They wouldn’t have any information on application flows, like any other attorney. They guessed the same way, they did with Redbus. Also, called Fragomen attorney who helped me to file my extension last month, they say there was no analysis done by Fragomen.

        1. MDC

          They have benchmarks… Fragomen is big enough statistically speaking. If they see a decrease of 30% in petitions we should see the same trend across the board..

    1. TheRealWorld

      Hi MartDC,

      But Fragomen’s latest press statement couple of hours ago, says this

      “Filing volume for FY 2018 is expected to be high. Last year, a record 236,000 petitions were filed against the cap. Approximately 151,000 petitions – over 63% of all cap filings – did not win a quota number. About 30% of regular cap cases and about 40% of advanced-degree cases were selected for processing last year.”

      https://www.fragomen.com/knowledge-center/immigration-alerts/fy-2018-h-1b-cap-season-begins-what-employers-and-foreign

      1. Shree

        Lol this year the applications are going to be record hit amid all tensions. For many applicants and companies it could be the last chance without hassle and flooding applications – https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/03/us/tech-visa-applications-h1b.html?referer=https://www.google.com/

          1. Shree

            Yes. Again, most of the applicants knew this could be the last year to apply like last year, before any major change in the system takes place from next year. Also, consultancies knew, H1Bs are going to be more important and beneficial in US market, as there will be restrictions in the inflow in the future (demand vs supply)

  8. imcool24

    As per the LCA site , total # is around 180K for start date of August and September 2017 . Considering that around 25K LCAs are filed every month for transfers, amendments,extensions –some of them proactively i am predicting the total count to be close to 130K this year.
    Not all LCAs filed will have an H1B filing and one LCA can have multiple H1B filings but it leads to extra scrutiny as well.
    There is no mandate which says Lottery has to happen. Don’t know why they started this lottery thing. This year the announcement doesn’t mention the word lottery. 3-4 years back USCIS used to close the quota once the cap was reached on first come first serve basis. Masters quota used to fill up much later as compared to open quota.

    1. suresh

      Its completely legal to conduct a lottery. why do not Geniuses explain how to pick the first 80k when they receive more than that number on the first day.

      Can you tell someone, hey your courier service failed to deliver by 1 min so your are out?

      How funny that is gonna be. why do not we try this at all elections so election officers can go to bed early.

      1. imcool24

        My guess is they will keep the window open only for the 1st day on First come First serve basis. They will reject all the applications after that window. Like they did for last 3 years for applications received after the first week. Keeping it open only for 85 K applications will help reduce their effort and this crazy lottery process.

    2. Shree

      USCIS did not say lottery before receiving the applications any year and this year is no exception. By the way, there was a case filed against USCIS by 2 IT firms in Portland to stop the lottery system, however, the court has dismissed the case in favor of USCIS. Meaning – there will be lottery if the number of applications exceed 85k.

      News reference – http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/us-court-dismisses-case-against-h-1b-lottery-system/articleshow/57888686.cms

      1. Prediction

        @Shree..
        USCIS actually did mention lottery last year before accepting applications. This year they did not. I am not saying there won’t be any lottery though.

      2. imcool24

        Please check your facts. Visit the USCIS website and look for the H1B announcements for last 2 years when lottery was done and compare it with this year. They had mentioned in their previous alerts that they will conduct lottery. f i am not wrong 5-6 years back they only conducted lottery on open quota since Master’s quota was still open. They closed the MS quota much later during the year. This year they will only keep the window open for 1st Day only is what i am guessing. There is no mandate to keep it open for 5 days and then do a lottery . It’s some crazy logic they applied for past 3-4 years.

        1. Shree

          While I agree with you on the fact that, they “did” announce lottery in the previous year, but can’t agree that they close the window on first day. A case against USCIS rejected by Portland court in favor of lottery system clearly shows, there will be lottery this year, if they receive more than 85k applications. They can not reject the applications, just because the courier company delivered them bit late. Also, these applications are counted by USCIS employees and you wouldn’t know how many applications you received on the first day, looking at the pile of documents. Also, they tend to keep the window open until next April, if the number of petitions don’t reach 85k cap.

          1. imcool24

            Congress set a cap of 65,000 H-1B visas per fiscal year. An advanced degree exemption from the H-1B cap is available for 20,000 beneficiaries who have earned a US master’s degree or higher. The agency will monitor the number of petitions received and notify the public when the H-1B cap has been met

            The last line is the game changer. They will keep monitoring the petitions and notify when the cap is met. They are NOT saying lottery will be conducted anywhere. Don’t know whats going to happen man but things are tense now.

      3. imcool24

        The numbers will not exceed 85 K since they will shut the window once it is full like they did 4-5 years back. Only difference is the window used to close much later during the year. This is just my guess.

        1. Shree

          How do they keep the count of all applications received in 3-4 different locations realtime, while different courier companies keep on dumping the applications at once. 5 years back, they stopped receiving the applications when it reached 85k, but it never used to touch 85k on the first day. It used to be after months.

          1. imcool24

            Yes – so also note they didn’t keep the window open still after getting 85 K and then say we would do lottery. So what i am guessing is they will monitor somewhere around 85K and then keep 5-10K for backup and reject the rest. I am pretty sure they are receiving more than 85K petitions on 1st day itself in both quotas. Lets hope for the best.

  9. Gopal

    Even though the previous predictions were right but I don’t think this time it will be. There is no way applications can reach anywhere near 210000.

    Many consultancies I know have stopped filing altogether.

      1. Shree

        Big 4? You do know Big 4 companies are Ernst &Young, Deloitte, PwC and KPMG right? don’t think these companies will have many visa petitions.

    1. Sagar

      Admin is correct with the predictions. There is another website which has given data driven predictions based on LCA data .
      https://frontsimple.com/posts/h1b-2018-lottery/

      We can expect around 230k cap count this year.

        1. Prediction

          There is a possibility that everyone is pushing their other H1b applications as well (CAP Exempts, transfers, extensions) because of the PP suspension. They want to file before April 3rd which is increasing the overall LCA count.

          1. Prediction

            Yes. Any changes in existing H1b will require LCA. If you refer to any approved LCA, You will see that there are options of choosing new/extension/amendment/transfer. Even CAP exempts require LCAs because they have to prove that the job role is fairly paid and authentic.

          2. Gopal

            Okay that means not all LCA count can be considered for fresh/new H1B prediction and also why would H1B transfers/extension apply in March because Fiscal year starts from October and so might have got approval anytime after that.

          3. Prediction

            That is because they suspended PP for AT LEAST 6 months which is till Oct at least. People might not want to deal with that uncertainty.

          4. Gopal

            @Prediction

            You’re spot on there buddy.

            What do you reckon will be the estimated new H1B applications?

          5. Shree

            However, those transfers and extensions do not come to lottery and these are not part of 230k expected applications.

          6. Prediction

            Yes I am aware. This is in reference to the overall LCA count and not new petitions. No one can say for sure how many new petition LCAs are filed yet.

  10. Sathish kumar

    I guess , this year definitely it will not cross 160k petitions..

    Infosys has cut down their applications by 50% compared to last year(25,000) and Wipro is not processing even a single petition this year(last year 10-11k). Only these two companies have reduced the count to 22,000+ petitions compared to last year..

    I would suggest ” redbus ” to do more analysis by reaching out to friends working in techie firms and provide us with usefull information rather than just guessing.

    1. Shree

      It can easily cross 230k this year, because more companies started hiring H1B applicants in US. Hence, reduction in Infosys application does not matter. Also, this year there is an expectation of more Chinese and EU H1B applications along with Indian talents.

      1. Shree

        Also, need not mention last 2 years have seen a lot of higher education international students in US and all of them now in the race for H1B. Also, extension of OPT from 1 year to 2 years, keeps the hope for those who failed to get last year.

    1. Lokesh

      Redbus is not guessing the lottery.They were reading it in LCA website and posting it in the last time and claiming like they have guessed the number correct. Funny.

  11. Ansh2112

    Chill guys.
    I understand everyone is frustrated and trying hard to get a better life. but keep one thing mind that it’s a lottery as in gambling. so what happens is fate.
    Good luck to those who are applying this year. not everyone can win this so let’s play in peace.
    Thanks for all the predictions but I would rather wait and see what’s going to be final numbers. coz these are more of rumours rather predictions.

    Thanks.

  12. CTS_CBE

    Guys,

    Come over
    http://redbus2us.com/h1b-visa-2018-cap-count-updates-tracker-latest-news-info/comment-page-1/#comment-1067578

    Admins created another page.. 😛

    1. Sowmya

      It is true ..Companies like CTS, TCS, Indy, HCl has greatly reduced the number of applicants ..I can wow for CTS and reduction is 3/4th ..

  13. H1B Pro

    Based on my research Outsourcing companies are filing 60% less H1B this year. I feel there won’t be any lottery this year if people don’t file multiple applications.

    Also, Multiple filing can be a problem this year.

  14. K

    Double filing is legal with two different employers. (in fact, N number of filings with N number of employers is legal).

    2 filings with 1 employers is always legal.

    What one needs to be cautious about is not a change in law, but increased scrutiny, inspection and validation of each filing (Especially since premium processing has been cancelled).

    Many scenarios are possible, but I would strongly advice that everyone stays away from using desi consultancies (the ones that fake experience etc).

    My reasoning:
    If you consider the various bills in congress currently – none of them are aimed at shutting down the H1b program, they are targeted towards consultancies that train and fake experience. Sooner or later these companies will loose their certification to apply for h1b.

    You do not want to be caught in the crossfire. In previous years, such scrutiny of employers was never conducted. We do not know how they will deal with fraud cases this year, but it will definitely not be the same lenient process that we have seen the last few years.

    1. SK

      K,

      You multiple filling is legal. Is it Legal to have two different employers filling for same employee and does designation plays any role.

      Do you see any scrutiny this year, for the person filling from valid muliple employers.

      Last thing, will user will choice to select the respected employer after the lottery

        1. K

          Designation does not play a role other than basic due diligence – title/job description matches salary etc.
          As long as two LCAs are filed you are in good shape. Good for you if you have two shots at the lottery.

          The issue is when people ‘pay’ for h1b filings that they do not intend to accept or when one of your h1b sponsors are a body shop that file a disproportionate number of h1bs based on the industry that they are in and the size of the company. This is very easy to identify for both applicants and for USCIS. As long as applicants stay away from those, there should not be any issues.

      1. K

        Yes, multiple filing is legal and designation does not play a role other than basic due diligence – title/job description matches salary etc.
        As long as two LCAs are filed you are in good shape. Good for you if you have two shots at the lottery.

        The issue is when people ‘pay’ for h1b filings that they do not intend to accept or when one of your h1b sponsors are a body shop that file a disproportionate number of h1bs based on the industry that they are in and the size of the company. This is very easy to identify for both applicants and for USCIS. As long as applicants stay away from those, there should not be any issues.

    1. Predator

      Mr Predictor – You just predict H1B or Weather As well.

      As because In North East US – Snow storm is going on

      Can you please predict & share that information as well, Thanks Man.

  15. CrazyPK

    Dont try to do Double/Triple filing this time, last year one of my friend filed double and both got picked, he cancelled one but the other is still in RFE now as process became very strict from last year. There are chances that double filings becomes invalid from this Year.

    1. H1B_helper...

      Double filing from same employer was always invalid. And obviously anyone​ can file multiple petition through multiple employers. If you’re case is valid, they’ll get approved. Please don’t misspeak.

      1. suresh

        Yes its legal but under trump anything can happen. this time surely USCIS looks for even small mistakes.

        Double fillings definitely slows the process down.

  16. Shehryar aziz

    Please, while calculating the predictions. Take into the account that 6 countries are banned from applying any kind of Visa for 90 days. This will surely affect the filings by few numbers as all of those countries were needy countries.

  17. Ram

    This year I feel the outsourcing companies will dramatically dial down there fresh H1B applications.

    In house projects with consulting companies will be near impossible to get H1B and even more difficult to get stamped. Also everybody knows genuine clients do not wait for 6 months!

    Finally American companies are trying to avoid hiring full time people on H1B .

    I predict we will not have lottery this year!

      1. S

        Possibly no lottery this year, doesn’t mean the application won’t exceed the cap. This is obvious as USCIS didn’t mention anything on lottery in the latest circular. USCIS might use a new “Model” to pick the candidates to balance geographical share and also giving importance to start ups with small number of employees.

    1. Abhinay Bandra

      Your Prediction so what correct, There be less number in h1b application filing.
      But when comes to bigger picture – Taking everything into consideration (opt’s, h4’s, Earlier years lottery not picked guys,this year aspirants, some companies who files this year) – Count crosses easily 130,000 .

    2. S

      Could have been true if USCIS hadn’t suspended premium processing. If a firm wants to hire a techie it was easier with H1B transfer, where the hiring could have been processed in a month. Since, the premium processing is suspended it would take similar time to hire someone already with H1B visa or a fresh application waiting to join in October.

  18. K

    Round 1: U.S Masters Quota
    45,000 applications
    20,000 spots
    = 0.45 or 45% chance

    Round 2: General Quota
    205,000 Applications
    65,000 Spots
    =0.32 or .32% Chance

    For U.S Masters, total change: 62%
    For General Quota: 32%

    This does not take into account 6,800 H1b visas kept aside on bilateral treaty with Chile.

    1. TRUTH Finder

      Who said 45,000 Applicants via Masters ???

      Who said that exactly 205,000 Applicants via Regular ???

      Have you Consulted any ASTROLOGER or just Your American Dream for those Numbers ???

      What is this Round 1 & Round 2 ???

      BE CLEAR MANN in Expressing your Thoughts.

      1. K

        Its an estimate using the data provided in the article as well as other sources.
        Mainly:
        – http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/international-students-united-states

        205,000 application in general quota because I start with 225,000, and we assume that 20,000 get selected in h1b masters cap (i.e round 1).

        Round 1 and Round 2 are the H1b Masters cap lottery and general quota lottery.

        When asking questions online, please:
        1 – Try to read/understand the article thoroughly
        2 – Do not expect people to handhold you when your questions portray an utter lack of understanding and/or ability to use google for basic research.
        3 – Keep your arrogance at the door.

    1. Observer

      This year the applications will be accepted from April 3 and should be accepted probably till April 7. If you already have a sponsor, then they need to make sure that your application reaches during these dates. All the best!

    1. Shrikant

      Could you at least mention what are the areas? Like F1 or H1B things? Or maybe certain date? Sorry just curious. Can not stop thinking about it.

      1. S

        1. Here is the USCIS update on petitions published today. Very important note in the first paragraph “All the petitions filed before April 3, 2017, for the FY 2018 cap will be rejected and all petitions should come through from April 3” – https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/uscis-will-accept-h-1b-petitions-fiscal-year-2018-beginning-april-3

        2. Areas covered in H1B – https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations-dod-cooperative-research-and-development-project-workers-and-fashion-models

    1. Anjaneyullu

      Companies like INFOSYS, TCS, WIPRO became SHITT (useless) under Trump Administration. THose companies have created enough MESS here in US, By bringing CHEAP Labor & Supply to Clients and Making Money . These INFY, TCS, WPRO have looted Indian Talent by shifting to US, Made enough money by Hard working Indian Talent. Indian IT Service based companies SUCK the blood like Parasites, Mosquitoes and make money out of it. NOW IT WON’T HAPPEN because of MR TRUMP

      1. Anjana

        I can understand your feelings but to be considered by Indian IT Service companies also, you need some talent and skills. Seems you don’t have it, that’s why you are whining like a baby.

        1. raj

          anjana.. Imagine US companies in India hiring workers from USA/Nepal or Srilanka to work in India because they are cheap. What would we Indians do? There would be a huge clamor to kick them out or shut the company. Every country has its own issues when it comes to employment, labor laws and sentiments of people towards it. There were so many issues from local people in karnataka for giving jobs to North Indians and other South Indians in Bangalore. People who come here for Masters degree are coming here for better opportunities, better work culture and a good career. They don’t want to get involved into petty politics environment these Indian companies have, where one has to kiss boss’ rear to get promotion or recognition.

          Here’s the take away for you:
          Don’t try to act like professor Dumbledore because you have written a few lines of code in the software sweat shop you’re working. You’re talking as if coming to USA in H1b is your birth right. Everyone deserves a better life and students in the USA deserves it the most. They have invested, worked hard and earned a degree for a better future unlike people like you. Sooner or later sweat shop like the one you are working will be penalized or forced to hire local workers.

          1. Anjaneyullu

            Well Said RAJ – hundred Likes for the Comment.

            @ Anjana – You need some talent and skills :- What Skills you have Anjana Sister that gives you Direct H1 without filling your application.

            @ Anjana – Seems you don’t have it :- How can you judge my Skills Baby.

            Don’t need your Certification Sister ( Under disguised ANJANA name

          2. Professor Dumbledore

            @raj

            Well said, son.

            Hope you have invested, studied and earned a degree to deserve a better life.

    2. RONALD GRUMP

      All these Indian IT Service based companies like WIPRO,TCS,INFOSYS,CAPGEMINI do Immigration Fraud. They just FLOAT People for Money, Simply BODY SHOP the resources 2 US and MAKE Money Out of IT….. TRUMP Knows this and will be keeping a Pull-stop to this MESS Sooner.

        1. Google...

          In your dreams… Every thing is a stunt in politics… Trump won because rust belt vote… Not white collar votes… Every companies know it is about 4 yr or 8 yrs max…

          You don’t kill the golden egg laying duck… Don’t you…

          Wait and watch…

  19. Kiran

    Hi Kumar,

    It’s been more than 5 years I am following this site. I am entering again to check my fate for the THIRD TIME and probably the last and final try. Thank you so much for the information you are providing which is SIMPLE and MODERATE.

    All the best for all the aspirants of H1B 2018 !!!!

  20. Gaurav Sawant

    Going 2 US on H1b is like taking a ticket 2 HELL, Going to get killed by Anyone, Anywhere ; Life is at high Risk – Hate mongering comments by Trump. STRICT IMMIGRATION LAWS, AMERICA FIRST – No jobs or very less opportunities to Foreigners. American dream is fading – Many Companies are hiring Locals, Immigration laws are becoming stronger & stronger. NO PEACE ON H1B – Always FEAR on LIFE, Job Security, IMMIGRATION Status. FULL of HELL in USA.

    1. Google

      Look at this guy… Don’t cry like a baby… If you are a scary cat, stay home in the kitchen… Ball’less guys are not welcome anywhere…

      1. Pranab Mukerjee

        I don’t think so that many applications this year, Even more applications – SCRUTINY will be more. Visa Interview will be Toughest ever seen Before, NO client Letter – Simple Rejection, USCIS Will check all the BODY SHOPPING CONSULTING Information, Expect the Toughest time this Year.

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