In general, it is always a good idea to look at past data and understand the trend for future decisions. Let us look at H1B cap reach dates by year from 2003 to 2011 in this article and analyze on how it can help us to estimate the best time to file for H1B visa 2012.
H1B visa cap reach statistics from year 2003 to 2011
|H1B Visa Cap Reached ?||Cap Reached Date|
|2004||YES||October 1, 2003|
|2005||YES||October 1, 2004|
|2006||YES||August 10, 2005|
|2007||YES||May 26, 2006|
|2008||YES||April 3, 2007|
|2009||YES||April 7, 2008|
|2010||YES||December 21, 2009|
|2011||YES||January 26, 2011|
Analysis of H1B visa cap reach dates for 2012 petition filing :
If you look at the below graph, you can get a feel of the H1B cap reach dates based on macro economic conditions. In 2003 and 2004 the H1B cap lasted till October 1st because of the 2000- 2002 recession period…as recession eased and economy recovered we can see that the H1B cap reach dates pushing closer and closer to April first week, even resulting in lottery. After April 2008, we can see the impact of recession as the cap reach dates are pushed away to December and for this fiscal year, FY 2011, lasting until January 26th, 2011.
In Macroeconomics, after recession, there is a general expansion phase as in above graph (first one under title). Based on National Bureau of Economic research report, we have hit the recession trough in June 2009 for the recession that started in 2007…technically, we are in expansion phase according to them since June 2009…. but, the growth has been sluggish, which has been a worry…The pace of growth predicted for 2011 seems optimistic and good…If we go by logic, we should reach the H1B cap earlier than this year i.e. FY 2011. It can be very hard to predict the exact H1B visa 2012 cap reach date right now just by the data at hand as we only have data for one economic cycle. In general, it should reach earlier than H1B visa 2011 cap reach date. So, if you are one of those people looking to file H1B visa in Fiscal year 2012 quota, which starts in April. Start planning ahead…If you are looking for info prior to 2003, read article : H1B cap reach dates by year from 1999 – Graph
What are your thoughts on cap reach dates and prediction of the same for H1B FY 2012 cap?
Economic cycle Image credit : http://www.harpercollege.edu/mhealy/eco212/lectures/asad/asad_files/0901.jpg