H1B_Visa_2014_Lottery_prediction_by_USCIS

H1B Visa 2014 Lottery Prediction – Graphs, USCIS Past Data

In Apply H1B Visa by Kumar311 Comments

Are you looking for H1B FY 2015 Lottery Predictions ?
Check out H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Predictions, USCIS Data Trends

I have been writing about H1B Visa lottery predictions for the past few years…It is always exciting for me to review all the previous years’ H1B cap numbers, market trends, reach dates, etc. on the plate and do a prediction.  This year, there has been so much news regarding the H1B lottery for fiscal year 2014 with USCIS H1B 2014 press release indicating that H1B petitions will be accepted from April 1st , 2013 and  there could be lottery based on information from stakeholders. As we are inching towards the date, many of you might be curious regarding the H1B lottery.  Let us look at some numbers and market conditions to predict if we would have lottery for this H1B Visa fiscal year 2014 quota.

US Economy  and H1B Visas Cap reach dates from Fiscal Year 2004 – 2013

Below is a graph that indicates the H1B Visa quota cap reach dates by year from fiscal year 2004 through 2013. If you look closely the trend of H1B cap reach dates by year is in-line with the US economy situation. As the economy worsens and there is a recession, the demand for H1B visa holders declines pushing the cap reach dates.  With the recession that started in  2008 and 2009, the H1B cap reach date for FY 2010 got pushed to early December, 2009 and with US recession worsening, for FY 2011, the H1B Cap reach date got pushed to even further to late January 2010…Unlike, with US economy recovering slightly, for FY 2012, the H1B cap reached in November 2011, and US economy even doing much better, for FY 2013, cap reached on June 11th, 2012.

H1B Visa 2014 Lottery Prediction Graph

Also, if you look at the US Unemployment rate history in the below graph, it is evident that we are not really at the old levels of about 6%. It indicates that the US Economy is still in slow recovery mode. Coming to US Annual GDP growth rate, we are about 1.6% from the last quarter, but that drop in GDP is tied to natural calamities in last quarter. Overall, the US economy is still in recovery mode, despite the positive growth from recession period.

USA GDP and Unemployment rate with H1B Visas

Will there be H1B Lottery for 2014 Quota ?   Prediction ?

Besides above US economy trends from above, significant number of changes happened in the H1B visa space in the last couple of years like below

  • To discourage foreign workers, H1B visa filing fee was raised by $2000 during recession
  • More H1B checks in place with Neufeld H1B visa memo in Jan 2010
  • Additional 17 months OPT extension for STEM Master’s degree holders.
  • Increase in RFEs and Rejections for H1B Cases.

One more factor to consider is that with recession starting in 2008 -2009, employers have postponed the H1B filings of Masters students in STEM category by leveraging the 12 month OPT with 17th month OPT extension.  With 29 months coming to end, employers are forced to file H1B for those postponed petitions.  Also, USCIS has stated in the press release that, “Based on feedback from its stake holders, it could receive more petitions than H1B cap between April 1st and April 5th “.

Now, the big question, what’s the conclusion based on above factors? Would we have lottery?

Well, even though USCIS predicts that there would be lottery, I personally think, the H1B quota cap would last at least until April 10th or may be a little longer. The master’s quota cap could exhaust within first week of April 2013, but not the regular quota. The reason I do NOT speculate a lottery in the first four days is that there are many factors that are not very encouraging for employers to sponsor H1B visas like recent changes to H1B filing with new rules, fee rises, high unemployment rate, and overall US economic condition.  I could be wrong, if the people psychology kicks in…what I mean is that because USCIS issued a press note on lottery, employers could roll up their sleeves and get their petitions ahead of time than their original planned filings date. Let’s see what happens…

What is your prediction for H1B lottery for this fiscal year 2014 ?

For all updates, You can follow H1B Visa 2014 cap count updates Tracker

You can also read our previous years H1B lottery prediction articles below

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Comments ( 311 )

  1. abc

    I am also waiting RQ/RP/CSC
    My application reached USCIS on April 1st.
    I asked my employer to call USCIS. He is not ready to call.
    I wanted to know what all details are asked to the employer by USCIS over phone.

      1. @sam

        Can you show me the official statement telling that?

        I know you can’t because there isn’t any so shut the F**K up and stop giving false information

        1. sam

          Go to the website. It’s in there.
          You stop giving False information because of your ignorance and foolishness!
          It’s a shame people like you are mocking desperate folks like us at such a time.

      2. Curious

        i didnot find the News released by USICS, abt the last date of sending the receipt numbers. COuld you please kindly paste the URL stating that here. thx in advance.

  2. Nik

    I received confirmation from my employer on friday that I was selected in the lottery. This forum has helped me a lot to keep my hopes high!! Thank you Guys!
    I wish all the best to awaiting candidates! I hope that all of you will be selected & will be sharing your moment soon 🙂
    Nik

  3. Saiphanendra

    Hi Floks,

    I am waiting for my H1b lottery decision, applied RP/RQ ,which was not delivered yet. My employer and the attorney throught which the application is filed is also not sure when will the decission gets. Shall i pin my hopes on it. Heard/Read from one of the blogs that we can wait till 2nd week of May, how true is it.
    Any answer would be helpful

  4. RK

    Still waiting for my luck…
    I am under “Regular Processing / Regular Quota”.

    Lost hopes……….Also waiting for my return package…

    1. Will

      Still waiting too – hard to not lose hope but who knows right…

      Hopefully the new immigration bill will be retro-active, and we all get a Visa

  5. checked

    Hi All,

    I randomly checked the below wac1314850050 and see that the received date is April 15..that means we can still have hope ? !!!!

  6. auto

    Got receipt: EAC–xxxx-50512
    Received date – 04/08/13
    Notice date – 05/01/13
    Checked now, it’s under Initial review

  7. Priku

    Anyone frm Wipro received H1B receipt no.?

    My husband has applied for H1B RQ/RP. We haven’t heard anything from the employer till now. I’m not sure whether the company got info from uscis and not informing us or they themselves didnt receive any updates from uscis. We r losing hope.

  8. H1B_aspirant

    Hi all,

    Received the I-797C for my dependents (H4) yesterday. But still have not idea about my H1 receipt.

    Would this mean my H1 has been selected too? I really pray so.

        1. VJY

          Usually dependents get Notice sooner than H1, If H4 notice is received means H1 notice is in the queue and will reach soon. Won the Lottery!

  9. Ranjithkumar

    Hi guys,

    I received my receipt on friday………….hip hip hurray…….those who are waiting for their luck, dont lose hope cause still chances are there…i had discussion with my employer other day and i was told like still other people can wait for another 2 weeks to get the receipts…..

    Wish you good luck……………Keep faith in ur self and god.

  10. Hope

    Hello Friends,

    All those who r waiting for their receipts don’t lose HOPE coz USCIS is still generating receipt nbrs. My employer got receipt nbr for my application yesterday, EAC-13-148-5XXXX RQ/RP/VSC.

  11. Heera

    Hi friends, can anyone tell me the name of the flexible schools (With low tuition fees) that allow CPT during first semester?

  12. Prasad

    Hi Saurabh,

    I am working for Employer A, and got approval for H1 transfer for Emplowr B, now I got very good offer from Employer C and they filed for my H1 transfer with using Employer A’s I797 .
    Below are my questions
    1. Will it get approve for Emoyer C?
    2. How many approved petitions tha can have per person?
    Tnx in adv for immediate response

    Tnx
    Prasad

  13. Aishwarya

    My husband applied for L1 to H1 transfer. His L1 visa got expired on Aug 2012. His I94 date is Aug 2013. Applied for H1 now, not received the receipt yet 🙁 Most of the L1 extensions got rejected if we apply from U.S. Eagerly waiting to get H1. Can I know when is the last date to get receipt for H1?

  14. Neha

    hi..
    My husband has applied for h1 b on first april with premium process. Still v dont have any news for reciept or rejection? Is there any hope left for the reciept?

    1. Superman

      No hope at all. All lottery-winner premium processing H-1Bs had been notified on or before 4/15/2013. USCIS will finish notification of all lottery winners first, including regular processing H-1Bs, before it starts to return lottery losers’ packages.

  15. JasonGamma

    hi,

    I recvd an I-797C addressed to my wife about receipt of petition and change of status to H4. Not sure if this implies that my petition has been picked up in the lottery for further processing. Any similar experiences anyone? can somebody clarify if it confirms selection in lottery?

    Peace,
    Jason

    1. Sagar Vyas

      Hi Jason,

      Yes, That impies thau ur petition has been approved.

      You can also trak this online in one of the site.

      Congratulations!

      Thanks,
      Sagar Vyas

      1. JasonGamma

        Thanks a lot Sagar!!!

        Folks, don’t lose hope….there may be some delay but patience is bound to pay off.
        Just stay strong and keep the faith.

        All the very best!

        Peace,
        Jason

    2. Thankful

      I got my receipt today. I am very thankful. Hopefully everything will go smoothly

      And for those of you who are wondering, the check is not cashed yet as of today and I got my receipt showing Notice date 04/26/2013.

      So, if your check is not cashed yet as of now, that doesn’t mean you are not selected. Your receipt might be still on the way.

      Good luck!!

      1. Raj

        Congratz @Thanksful. are you a fresh H1-B (not changing status) Also can you share the receipt # pls? WAC13xxx…… just those xxx digits that represent the day. Thanks

  16. IBMer

    Guys,
    Anybody here from IBM who have received receipt number?? I heard they have started sending receipts to employees…anybody lucky on this forum..

    1. still waiting

      I have contacted my lawyer and she informed that they have not received either receipt nor returned package. Should I keep my hope up ?

      1. San Ch

        Yes,
        Till you get the returned package, please be optimistic
        In fact, there would be receipts coming for next 2-3 weeks for sure

  17. Gia

    Hi all,

    Congratulations to all those who have received the approval.
    I have been waiting to hear from my lawyer. She has no information about my case yet. Can anyone please explain till when should I wait? Is there any last date? I am streesed.

    Good luck to the rest who are sailing in my boat.
    Gia

    1. Sagar Vyas

      As per my employer said ,you can consider last date as 25th May 2013. Till time dont lose your hope 🙂 Best of Luck

      Regards,
      Sagar Vyas

  18. H1 B 2014

    Hi Friends ,

    Just hear from my Company HR that My Cheque is en cash does it mean thy pick me up in lottery ..

    Plz make me clarify and my best wishes to all who still in wait for Gudd news

  19. Rupa

    Have not received receipt number yet. Is there any cut off date announced by USCIS for sending the receipts?
    Has anyone got a ‘not picked up in lottery’confirmation ? Dont know when to start loosing hope.

    1. srkjos

      No Rupa,nobody received returned package. they r supposed return by may end. whats ur center and processing type (RQ/RP) (AD/Premium)

  20. Hairsh

    I am still waiting for H1B application lottery status to my H1. Has anyone have any update on it? Filed on Regular Processing on AD category.

      1. Sarbajeet Singh

        Don’t you worry, and just give up. Do not wait and loose your health with ever increasing stress. Better luck next time and go get admission at some CPT school.
        Cheers……..:-)))))))))))))))>

    1. Sagar Vyas

      Hi Guys,

      I got selected in Lottery, I just got receipt.

      Now I guess distribution of result is started , guys who has not received yet don’t be panic wait for 25th of May 2013.

      Thanks,
      Sagar Vyas

  21. RP

    Hi Saurabh,
    Can you clarify below query
    One consulting company initiated my H1 transfer through PP and might be get approved, now my current employer filling extension.

    My question is
    Is my current employer come know about the h1 transfer when he files extension.?
    Is USICS cancel my current i797 after h1 transferred approved for new employer?
    How many i797 can have for person?
    Thank
    RP

  22. Peeyush

    Got the receipt number from the employer, who got it from the lawyer they engage. Lottery cleared under Normal Processing and it says application received date is 08th Apri

  23. Peeyush

    Got the receipt number from the employer, who got it from the lawyer they engage. Lottery cleared and it say application received date is 08th April

  24. aakhir

    thanks to the ones who suggested we (AD) call our schools for a sevis status check
    called the dso at my school, sevis got updated with my EAC#
    AD/RP/VSC
    EAC131365XXXX
    On April 8, 2013, we received this I129 PETITION FOR A NONIMMIGRANT WORKER….

    employer/lawyer didnt receive notification yet, good luck to the ones still waiting for an update

    1. Murali

      I received my receipt mentioning USCIS received my application on April 8, 2013. But as per USCIS note on website, it mentions that ” On April 7, 2013, USCIS used a computer-generated random selection process (commonly known as a “lottery”) to select a sufficient number of petitions”

      I am still not clear how applications are processed that were received after Apr 7. Does that mean than my USCIS recoved my apllication before Apr 5th and assigned a number for lottery. Could some one clarify this ?

      1. mps

        you have been selected in the lottery, than only you received the receipt. The person who did not made through lottery will not get any receipt from USCIS.

    1. Peeyush

      Got the receipt number from the employer, who got it from the lawyer they engage. Lottery cleared and it say application received date is 08th April

  25. RP

    Hi

    Can any one clarify below queries.

    I am working for Employer -A on H1 visa and Employer B is filled H1 transfer for me, but now Emplpoyer-A is going to be filling for Extension. my question is.

    Q. Is employer -A can have the chances to know about the Employer B’ petition while filing for Extension(Emp-A)?
    Q. IS USCIS is notifying to Employer -A about Employer B- filling process?

    Thanks
    Ravi

    1. Anon

      Hi Nandhana,

      I got the receipt today and I am AD/Regular VSC.
      My company did not send me the receipt number so I am not a 100% sure if they applied regular or premium, but I remember them telling me that they will apply regular (and that I would have to pay for PP, which I dint). But, I think they may have applied PP cause there is no way regular processing was done that fast.

    2. Praveena

      I am waiting too. My company’s lawyrs applied regular processing, reg cap. I was on J2 and switched to H1 unfortunately this year. Now i cannot cancel the waiver also. I think it is based on when the petition was filed, based on that we will get reply. Mine was April 3rd so waiting.

  26. Oneils

    I think it’s related to the date USCIS received the files. if one sent the files to them before April 1, they put all the data into their computer systems to issue a receipt number if it’s selected. For the files arrived there late like April 4 – 5, and if they are selected, I assume they get e-mail with receipt number later maybe by this week.

    So, guys who were selected and if you know when your files were delivered, please share it with us.

  27. ~XiX~

    I’m curious on one thing. The lottery has already been done.
    Suppose you get selected in the lottery (among ~65K petitions), it will take time to know if your petition is accepted, as USCIS has to open your packet, go through that and see you have filled everything. And if you applied normal processing should take much longer. I can understand that. I believe USCIS also has a waiting list in case some of the selected lottery petitions are rejected. So if you waitlisted then it will take a longest time for you to know.

    But in case, god forbid, that you are one of the guys not selected in the lottery and waiting list, then USCIS can pretty soon tell you that you are not selected, right? May be it takes time to inform all the ~35K guys but still it should be done within say a week max?

    Which means if I don’t hear anything from USCIS till this week I have high probability that my petition was at the least selected in the lottery?

    I’m wrong in the logic?

    1. Tinag D

      ofcourse it is duplicate if not fake. Are you one of those who simply killed two slots? I don’t know how people from abroad can do that. Here in US, if I tell my company that I want to file H1 through another company to increase my chance, they will freak out and even can show me the exit door. And I don’t see a reason of increase in possibility of getting H1 by applying through multiple companies. The probability is only high when you have lottery system like this year. But remember, even if you get through lottery, you can still be denied. Lottery gives chance to only evaluate your application and does not guarantee H1. But the good thing is USCIS learnt from 2008 fraud and soon will give opportunity to those US graduates and then the rest of the slots will be given to foreign applicants. And this is happening this year’s selection too, if you are analyzing.

  28. peelandeatbananas

    Regular Cap Chances.

    65000 slots – 6800 reserved for Chilie/ Singapore. = 58200 available slots for 104000 (I removed 20k that are in the Masters Quota)

    = 55.96 or 56% chance of winning a H1B slot.

    Adding that percentage to last years rejection rate of 18% = 73.96% or 74%.

    I would be pretty optimistic with a 74% chance of winning but the odds are still slightly above average.

    1. MP

      Dude, you forgot to add last year unused cap from Chile and Singapore. They are approx 4500 to 5000. So the chances are ~ 78%. Correct me if I am wrong…

      Good luck !

      1. peelandeatbananas

        Thanks. I didnt know about that statistic. However, I am trying to look at this from a worst case scenario point of view. Lets just all hope for the best and see what pans out.
        Cheers.

        1. MP

          Your rejection rate prediction seems authentic to me. See the following. But who knows rejection rate could be higher or lower.

          http://redbus2us.com/h1b-visa-rejection-rate-rfes-2012-report-history-from-2003-to-2011/

  29. Tinag D

    Total applications approx:124k
    Random Selection done on:4/7/2013
    We will get either unique case number or our application. The former is the sign of acceptance and the later is rejection.
    All the best!

  30. Tinag D

    Random selection done.
    We will either get a unique case number or our application. The former is the sign of acceptance and later is the rejection.
    Best of Luck to all friends.
    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=c91dea8c9eadd310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=a2dd6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

  31. Gopi

    Lottery Done on 04/07/2013. Total Application Received are 124k..check out USCIS website for more info…Fingers crossed…

  32. Peterson

    Latest News – 124K Total applicants and Lottery has already been conducted.

    Plz check USCIS website:

    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=c91dea8c9eadd310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=a2dd6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

  33. MP

    Please stop guessing the numbers of petitions. It is all non sense. Somebody is saying 115K, somebody is saying 95K. What is the point making somebody scary. Please have patiece and wait for USCIS to update the cap counts.

    Best of luck to all……. 🙂
    Cheers and face this reality……
    Have everyone good luck.

  34. Tinag D

    It looks very strange this year. But it seems like there are:
    PhD and MS: 30k applications
    Undergraduates:115k applications (not from reliable source like USCIS)
    If they are going to conduct random selection (lottery); studying their process, it looks like they are going to absorb Advanced degree candidates as much as they can. So those candidates will have higher probability than others. It is only my probability calculations, and I wish all the best for all of us here.

    1. Tinag D

      i did.
      hopefully it may help our friends in the coming years. but for us it looks like lottery is inevitable no matter whether u r PhD or MS or UG.

  35. Mayank Saluja

    It is official. There will be a lottery. Here is the official word from USCIS.

    a.) Both the Masters CAP and the General CAP has been met. There will be a lottery.
    b.) USCIS will not accept any more application. It will stop accepting applications today.
    c.) Lottery for the advanced degree will take place first. All degree petitions not selected will be placed in the general lottery.
    d.) Due to the high number of applications recieved USCIS is not able to currently state when it will have the lottery scheduled.
    e.) USICA will not provide the total number of petitions received as it is still recieving it today. Most probably it may do so monday.

    Best of luck in the Lottery!!!

    1. H1B User

      USCIS Reaches FY 2014 H-1B Cap

      http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5051f359827dd310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=e7801c2c9be44210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

      U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced today that it has received a sufficient number of H-1B petitions to reach the statutory cap for fiscal year (FY) 2014. USCIS has also received more than 20,000 H-1B petitions filed on behalf of persons exempt from the cap under the advanced degree exemption. After today, USCIS will not accept H-1B petitions subject to the FY 2014 cap or the advanced degree exemption.

      USCIS will use a computer-generated random selection process (commonly known as the “lottery”) for all FY 2014 cap-subject petitions received through April 5, 2013. The agency will conduct the selection process for advanced degree exemption petitions first. All advanced degree petitions not selected will be part of the random selection process for the 65,000 limit. Due to the high number of petitions received, USCIS is not yet able to announce the exact day of the random selection process. Also, USCIS is currently not providing the total number of petitions received, as we continue to accept filings today. USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions that are otherwise exempt from the cap.
      USCIS will provide more detailed information about the H-1B cap next week.
      For more information about USCIS and its programs, please visit www.uscis.gov or follow us on Twitter (@uscis), YouTube (/uscis) and the USCIS blog The Beacon.

  36. Tinag D

    Here comes the damn lottery. Love or hate, we have to take it. Doesn’t matter whether you are PhD or MS or undergraduate. Ofcourse, there will be two pools one for graduates and the other for undergraduates. Graduates relegated in the first draw will get one more chance with undergraduates and that is it.
    I wish all the best for all of us here in the same frying pan.

      1. zx

        Not all applications rejected in lottery are returned. Some are put in stand by mode waiting for applications that will get rejected.

          1. zx

            if it is excess by about 5000, and given a rejection rate of about 15% on the low side, then they will get in. What we dont know is how they decide who goes into the Stand by mode if the number

  37. kenya1

    STOP the useless alarm. There is no indication of Lottery so far.
    The USCIS alert page was last updated on 3/15/2013
    They have not announced any lottery orfany sort or any numbers.
    Lets continue waiting.

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