H1B Visa 2014 Lottery Prediction – Graphs, USCIS Past Data

H1B Visa 2014 Lottery Prediction by USCIS Data Analysis

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I have been writing about H1B Visa lottery predictions for the past few years…It is always exciting for me to review all the previous years’ H1B cap numbers, market trends, reach dates, etc. on the plate and do a prediction.  This year, there has been so much news regarding the H1B lottery for fiscal year 2014 with USCIS H1B 2014 press release indicating that H1B petitions will be accepted from April 1st , 2013 and  there could be lottery based on information from stakeholders. As we are inching towards the date, many of you might be curious regarding the H1B lottery.  Let us look at some numbers and market conditions to predict if we would have lottery for this H1B Visa fiscal year 2014 quota.

US Economy  and H1B Visas Cap reach dates from Fiscal Year 2004 – 2013

Below is a graph that indicates the H1B Visa quota cap reach dates by year from fiscal year 2004 through 2013. If you look closely the trend of H1B cap reach dates by year is in-line with the US economy situation. As the economy worsens and there is a recession, the demand for H1B visa holders declines pushing the cap reach dates.  With the recession that started in  2008 and 2009, the H1B cap reach date for FY 2010 got pushed to early December, 2009 and with US recession worsening, for FY 2011, the H1B Cap reach date got pushed to even further to late January 2010…Unlike, with US economy recovering slightly, for FY 2012, the H1B cap reached in November 2011, and US economy even doing much better, for FY 2013, cap reached on June 11th, 2012.

H1B Visa 2014 Lottery Prediction Graph

Also, if you look at the US Unemployment rate history in the below graph, it is evident that we are not really at the old levels of about 6%. It indicates that the US Economy is still in slow recovery mode. Coming to US Annual GDP growth rate, we are about 1.6% from the last quarter, but that drop in GDP is tied to natural calamities in last quarter. Overall, the US economy is still in recovery mode, despite the positive growth from recession period.

USA GDP and Unemployment rate with H1B Visas

Will there be H1B Lottery for 2014 Quota ?   Prediction ?

Besides above US economy trends from above, significant number of changes happened in the H1B visa space in the last couple of years like below

  • To discourage foreign workers, H1B visa filing fee was raised by $2000 during recession
  • More H1B checks in place with Neufeld H1B visa memo in Jan 2010
  • Additional 17 months OPT extension for STEM Master’s degree holders.
  • Increase in RFEs and Rejections for H1B Cases.

One more factor to consider is that with recession starting in 2008 -2009, employers have postponed the H1B filings of Masters students in STEM category by leveraging the 12 month OPT with 17th month OPT extension.  With 29 months coming to end, employers are forced to file H1B for those postponed petitions.  Also, USCIS has stated in the press release that, “Based on feedback from its stake holders, it could receive more petitions than H1B cap between April 1st and April 5th “.

Now, the big question, what’s the conclusion based on above factors? Would we have lottery?

Well, even though USCIS predicts that there would be lottery, I personally think, the H1B quota cap would last at least until April 10th or may be a little longer. The master’s quota cap could exhaust within first week of April 2013, but not the regular quota. The reason I do NOT speculate a lottery in the first four days is that there are many factors that are not very encouraging for employers to sponsor H1B visas like recent changes to H1B filing with new rules, fee rises, high unemployment rate, and overall US economic condition.  I could be wrong, if the people psychology kicks in…what I mean is that because USCIS issued a press note on lottery, employers could roll up their sleeves and get their petitions ahead of time than their original planned filings date. Let’s see what happens…

What is your prediction for H1B lottery for this fiscal year 2014 ?

For all updates, You can follow H1B Visa 2014 cap count updates Tracker

You can also read our previous years H1B lottery prediction articles below

310 comments… add one

  • anonymous May 11, 2014 Reply

    What is the last date to receive lottery result.My status is not yet updated.I don’t know if my application is rejected or accepted.

  • anonymous May 11, 2014 Reply

    Hi,

    What is the last date for the lottery results? I have not got anything in my status yet.I don’t know if my application is selected in lottery or rejected.

    Please reply.

  • vijay Apr 9, 2014 Reply

    if my application is rejected or not selected do i get my Fee back???

    • Helper Apr 9, 2014 Reply

      if your employer has not filed duplicate petitions for you.. then you get all your fees back…

    • Saurabh Apr 9, 2014 Reply

      Vijay,
      All fees is returned to the employer. If you have paid them anything for H-1 filing, then you will have to sort that out w/ the employer.

  • SP Dec 16, 2013 Reply

    Hey Guys,
    One word of caution, if applying for H1B through employers attorney, I suggest you check the filing paperwork yourselves before submitting the petition. In my case for 2013 my application was selected in the lottery, however it was subsequently rejected due to “failure to submit a complete copy for LC”, actually my employer/attorney has missed 1 page of the LC. They tried to remedy the situation by filing a plea with USCIS, but that was rejected as well. In my case my employer did not let me have a direct contact with the attorney and I had to suffer. Be proactive and ask questions friends, its very important.

  • MD SHAH ALAM Aug 13, 2013 Reply

    GRADUATE MECHANICAL ENGINEER HAVING 16 YEARS JOB EXPERIENCE IN LOCAL AND OVERSEAS

  • hopeisthere May 21, 2013 Reply

    Can i still have hopes on my application my employer did not receive any information as of yet please help. did the lottery results ended or still going on ?

    • San Ch May 21, 2013 Reply

      Did you get the packet back? If not, there are still hopes

    • Sagar Vyas May 23, 2013 Reply

      Hi,

      I guess upto 25th we can keep hope, otherwise sorry to say but better luck next time.

      Thanks,
      Sagar Vyas

      • vk May 23, 2013 Reply

        How do arrive at this date 25th May? Just curious…..

        • Sagar May 23, 2013 Reply

          Our Employer told me this

  • Shweta May 14, 2013 Reply

    My employer hasn’t received my receipt notice nor a rejection notice. I’m beginning to think my application wasn’t selected in the lottery. Is 15th of May still the last day to receive such notice?

    • Sagar Vyas May 23, 2013 Reply

      Hi Shweta,

      Keep hope upto 25th May.

      Best of Luck!!
      Sagar Vyas

  • Curious May 9, 2013 Reply

    What is the last date for receiving the receipt number for selected candiates. As one of the floks said is it 15th may. Please confirm. Also please paste the URL from the website that stating the information on last date.

    THanks in advance.

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